Crowded Trade - Contrarian Idea

Both TNX and TYX are still near all time lows as long-term treasury bonds continue to be in high demand from lockdown recession monetary stimulus. A moderate sell off in treasuries may cause a rapid unwinding from overcrowded positions and set up a downside reversion to the mean over the next month or two. The current price action is well above the 20 day moving average and would need a lot of downside economic developments to create further upward price movement in TLT in my opinion. Bearish bets moving forward look advantageous with current risk/reward outlook.