SQQQ Not yet, but possible

15 พ.ย.

SQQQ remains in a downtrend since early September & the small bounce in early November so far has failed to indicate a trend reversal, but SQQQ could break resistance at ~$15 in the next 2-4 weeks

• QQQ recently lost momentum & is testing the 50d MA
  
• A close below the 50d MA is a solid buy rule & with a price target for QQQ of $588 (100d MA), well within an uptrend
  
• The uptrend only breaks at a price around $530 or below it's 200d MA & this means SQQQ could push to $20 if the loss in momentum in the Q's accelerates
  

The probability of QQQ reaching $588 in the next 20 days is likely if QQQ closes below $600 & rises in likelihood if it breaks $592

• QQQ provides excellent signals for TQQQ/SQQQ because it trends well, is liquid, highly sensitive to economic news & frequently reverts to the mean
  
• When QQQ is above its 10d MA & breadth in the index is positive buy TQQQ, but avoid it when QQQ is struggling at resistance, consolidating sideways, or highly extended (after a parabolic move)
  
• When QQQ breaks a clear support level, prints lower highs & lower lows on the daily, or volatility ticks up (VIX/VXN) around economic news or earnings, buy SQQQ, but avoid it when QQQ is grinding higher, above rising MAs, or the VIX/VXN is falling
  

If you catch the middle of each trend, TQQQ/SQQQ can double accounts during strong periods without betting on extremes

• The idea is to capture consistent +5% to +20% moves in TQQQ & +7% to +15% moves in SQQQ with strict loses of -3% to -5% - this is the sweet spot
  
• It only requires 6-20 trades per year, so not daily or weekly, but only when the market sentiment clearly changes
  
• Avoid holding too long, buying opposite a clear trend too early & trading SQQQ & TQQQ without a clear setup
  

When QQQ loses the 20d MA, either a shallow pullback happens when QQQ briefly hits the 50d MA, where buyers enter & the trend resumes, or loss of momentum causes the price to fall below the 50d MA, which opens up the possibility of a fast move the 100d MA

• A close below the 50d MA often results in a decline to the 100d MA within 5-12 trading days
  
• Only buy SQQQ after a close below the 50d MA since it's a clear signal the market is ready to possibly sell any bounce
  

QQQ dipped below the 50d MA, but bulls defined the 50d MA which triggered stop-losses by early short entries

• Buying SQQQ before a confirmed close below the 50d MA is an easy way to get shaken out of an excellent idea since the market will actively dip below a key MA, appear bearish, flush weak hands & then reveal the actual direction the next day
  
• Never buy SQQQ unless QQQ closes below the 50d MA with volume
• Intraday breaks don’t matter
  
• A weak reclaim of the 50d MA almost always leads to another test of it, which is what the chart currently suggests based on a a weak daily close
  
• This suggests that a move toward $588 is still structurally possible
  
• If QQQ drops from ~$610 to ~$588 (-3.6%), SQQQ gains 10.8% on the move from ~$14.50 to ~$16, which is a realistic target
  

The current setup is broken if QQQ bounces above $613-$615 with volume, which signals a move toward $625

QQQ SQQQ TQQQ

20 พ.ย.

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