SPY Outlook – Key Levels & Probabilities

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SPY Outlook – Key Levels & Probabilities

SPY is sitting on a rising trendline and testing the 647 zone near the .618 retracement. Market structure shows a tug-of-war between bulls holding trend support and sellers guarding supply overhead.

🔑 Levels to Watch

Support: 645–643 (trendline + Fib cluster), deeper at 639.3

Resistance: 651–653 supply zone, breakout target 658 (Fib extension)

Liquidity Pools: 630–628 if support fails

📊 Probabilities

Bullish Case (60%) → Hold above 643 → upside push into 652–658

Bearish Case (40%) → Break below 643 → drop toward 639, possibly 630–628

🎯 Trade Map

Long setup: Enter near 645–643, stop below 641, targets 652 → 658

Short setup: Fade rejection at 652–653, stop above 654, target 639

⚡Bias remains bullish while above 643. A clean break below flips the script bearish.

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