SPX ELLIOTT One(1) more small wave up, One(1) giant wave down
Title says it all, After Amazon crash I expected a more bullish structure with a wave B lower before going higher reaching above 4,000. But the Fridays (hedge fund market mechanics) short covering/ squeeze quickly invalidated that.
Therefore what we have left is 4 medium sized waves to the upside and I suspect we will have one(1) more (5th wave) completing wave-C of a running flat correction creating a top at 4000-ish.
Undouptablty the marker maker/ mechanics rally the over past few weeks (which I am positing will successfully expire tons of end of the month retail puts "out of the money" and just in time for a convenient FOMC rate hike to sink the market lower) has predictably left many retail traders FOMO-ing at the mouth, ready to buy market maker call options. I suspect after Monday the Bullish impulses will evaporate quickly and BEARS will regain control slowing down and then tearing down the market at the rate hike (excuse to cover blatant market manipulation) trapping many retail investors who are simplistically thinking I'm smart and the market "should" GO up at elections (as it always has) and what about the "santa-rally... huh ?
For me it all depends how fast a new monthly bottom is reached. IF it happens quickly an election-rally/Santa-rally whatever is still possible but thinking a new monthly low is distinct possibility, so hold on.
There a many reasons for my views (to many to explain all here) but this is basically my main Elliott count and how I plan to look at the market in the next comming weeks for trading opportunities. Currently overall still on the long side but I have been taking profits and building up a short positions as well. This is not trading advice for anyone, but a simple remainder to myself.
Therefore what we have left is 4 medium sized waves to the upside and I suspect we will have one(1) more (5th wave) completing wave-C of a running flat correction creating a top at 4000-ish.
Undouptablty the marker maker/ mechanics rally the over past few weeks (which I am positing will successfully expire tons of end of the month retail puts "out of the money" and just in time for a convenient FOMC rate hike to sink the market lower) has predictably left many retail traders FOMO-ing at the mouth, ready to buy market maker call options. I suspect after Monday the Bullish impulses will evaporate quickly and BEARS will regain control slowing down and then tearing down the market at the rate hike (excuse to cover blatant market manipulation) trapping many retail investors who are simplistically thinking I'm smart and the market "should" GO up at elections (as it always has) and what about the "santa-rally... huh ?
For me it all depends how fast a new monthly bottom is reached. IF it happens quickly an election-rally/Santa-rally whatever is still possible but thinking a new monthly low is distinct possibility, so hold on.
There a many reasons for my views (to many to explain all here) but this is basically my main Elliott count and how I plan to look at the market in the next comming weeks for trading opportunities. Currently overall still on the long side but I have been taking profits and building up a short positions as well. This is not trading advice for anyone, but a simple remainder to myself.
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FYI my basic trading rules is to build small positions over time, this is a time i see transitioning form long to short, We also don't wait to long for "just one more wave", Waiting for "one more wave" has often left us "holding the bag". Tops/ bottoms rarely happen as planned, this is why we start building positions and averaging . If for example the market shoots up into some kind of supper bullish wave 3, we will witch to longs, hold our shorts, and re-short (manage our position) at the next level. Just how we do it based on many past mistakes. and we have been making money this whole year.
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Note to Myself:
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Monitor the Dow-Jones, the Dollar and the Vix.
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For the Sake of argument : (not saying I am but IF), IF this count is totally wrong, then the path up higher would look something like this chart below:
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Still looks like bulls targeting 4,000. Not sure why or how market will push up there with the FOMC rate hike . Perhaps during the day of the speech there might be a head-fake spike up to 4,000 , who knows.
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Yellow is my main count, the cyan is bullish count for the sake of argument. Will not update on this particular post more. good luck
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: Average your positions over time, If support is found on the 3900 or the market moves above 3935 stop adding to your short position, take a break and re-short after the market goes above 4,000 to bring your average up and reduce short positions at dips (you can still make money here or at the very least break even) at major pullback and consider building long positions.
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