This will be our final public post
The collapse of modern society and capitalism has begun
We must focus on preparation
May you all be safe
The collapse of modern society and capitalism has begun
We must focus on preparation
May you all be safe
ความคิดเห็น:
IWM headed for a crash
ความคิดเห็น:
GET READY FOR A DECADE OF PAIN AT THE GAS PUMP
HOME ENERGY COSTS ABOUT TO SKYROCKET
HOME ENERGY COSTS ABOUT TO SKYROCKET
ความคิดเห็น:
SAFE HAVEN TIME
ความคิดเห็น:
Ok looks like we were wrong...for now
The market decided to change its mind on crashing right now and instead head to new all time highs
A pullback is imminent so looking for the Fed news this week to provide a catalyst for that move lower
How that move takes shape will decide the rest of 2024 and beyond
With that said even if we get new ATHs the ultimate fate of the market is the same...a depression level environment that sees the S&P500 at sub-2000 levels.
The market decided to change its mind on crashing right now and instead head to new all time highs
A pullback is imminent so looking for the Fed news this week to provide a catalyst for that move lower
How that move takes shape will decide the rest of 2024 and beyond
With that said even if we get new ATHs the ultimate fate of the market is the same...a depression level environment that sees the S&P500 at sub-2000 levels.
ความคิดเห็น:
if we get new ATHs this is where we should top
Again, new ATHs do not change the ultimate destination...just means we decline from a higher price.
Again, new ATHs do not change the ultimate destination...just means we decline from a higher price.
ความคิดเห็น:
Looking for an extremely imminent pullback in the S&P
Ideally 1st support will hold and then we head higher to new ATHs
Ultimately the 2nd support needs to hold if we want to see those new ATHs
Any sustained break of the 2nd support opens the door to much larger sustained downside risk
BUT REMEMBER: Even if we get new ATHs the destination over the next 5-8 years is SUB 2000 with expected levels reaching as low as 666-1500 spx
Ideally 1st support will hold and then we head higher to new ATHs
Ultimately the 2nd support needs to hold if we want to see those new ATHs
Any sustained break of the 2nd support opens the door to much larger sustained downside risk
BUT REMEMBER: Even if we get new ATHs the destination over the next 5-8 years is SUB 2000 with expected levels reaching as low as 666-1500 spx
ความคิดเห็น:
If Support holds then we should head toward ATHs
If Support breaks we will head towards 4600
If Support breaks we will head towards 4600
ความคิดเห็น:
Highly suggest you take note of the Targeted Topping Zone
Market structure is suggesting that we may not get too far above that zone on this move.
In fact we may not break that zone at all
Essentially we are saying if you look at what we have been predicting with the broad markets price may not touch this zone again for a decade
Trying to sound the alarm here
We sincerely hope this analysis is wrong because we are not sure the vast majority of people understand the true nature of what we are facing in this country and throughout the world
Please Please Please get prepared
Market structure is suggesting that we may not get too far above that zone on this move.
In fact we may not break that zone at all
Essentially we are saying if you look at what we have been predicting with the broad markets price may not touch this zone again for a decade
Trying to sound the alarm here
We sincerely hope this analysis is wrong because we are not sure the vast majority of people understand the true nature of what we are facing in this country and throughout the world
Please Please Please get prepared
ความคิดเห็น:
Get Ready!
ความคิดเห็น:
Tweaked the targets a bit
ความคิดเห็น:
ALERT!!!
The break of the 5100 level today and the move lower is the huge sign that a major top has been established in the market
BUT even if new All time highs are made we still think the market will find a major ceiling between 5300 and 5400
The break of the 5100 level today and the move lower is the huge sign that a major top has been established in the market
BUT even if new All time highs are made we still think the market will find a major ceiling between 5300 and 5400
ความคิดเห็น:
Near term expectations
ความคิดเห็น:
Lets see how this plays out
ความคิดเห็น:
Market generally progressing as expected.
Its possible all of Wave (C) is complete but the market appears to still want to rally a bit
Lets see
Its possible all of Wave (C) is complete but the market appears to still want to rally a bit
Lets see
ความคิดเห็น:
Zooming out a bit to better see the move we are tracking
ความคิดเห็น:
Ok its pretty clear to us where price is most likely headed
Slightly tweaked the count.
Slightly tweaked the count.
ความคิดเห็น:
CRITICAL MARKET SUPPORT AREAS
The market appears to be setting up for a significant downturn
We are expecting that downturn to begin by the end of this week/ early next week
This could be really ugly
PLEASE TAKE CAUTION
The market appears to be setting up for a significant downturn
We are expecting that downturn to begin by the end of this week/ early next week
This could be really ugly
PLEASE TAKE CAUTION
ความคิดเห็น:
CRASH ALERT!!!
BE CAREFUL!!!
BE CAREFUL!!!
ความคิดเห็น:
One last push higher and we should see price fall off a cliff
ความคิดเห็น:
IWM about to go down in flames!!!
ความคิดเห็น:
Ok we are in the target crash zone.
We are on high alert for a significant downturn...i certainly hope we are wrong because this going to be UGLY
Expect one more smaller push higher and then watch out below
We are on high alert for a significant downturn...i certainly hope we are wrong because this going to be UGLY
Expect one more smaller push higher and then watch out below
ความคิดเห็น:
Price pushed higher as expected.
BE CAREFUL!
BE CAREFUL!
ความคิดเห็น:
Get Ready
ความคิดเห็น:
Lets see if we are early on this call...
A break above Wave 2 would invalidate this
A break above Wave 2 would invalidate this
ความคิดเห็น:
Ok with that immediate count invalidated then it looks like our terminal top is directly above
ความคิดเห็น:
WELL CANT SAY WE DIDNT WARN YOU
ความคิดเห็น:
Ok based on the latest price action this should be our first major support area
ความคิดเห็น:
Tweaked the targets based on latest price action
We expect tomorrow and the rest of the week to be very volatile
BE CAREFUL!!
We expect tomorrow and the rest of the week to be very volatile
BE CAREFUL!!
ความคิดเห็น:
Perspective:
On our Dec 12th 2023 post we called out the price region we are currently in as a MAJOR TOPPING ZONE.
We have done our best to zero in on a more exact level- (i.e. our Targeted Topping Zone regions).
The fact of the matter is that even if we make a new high, we see much greater risk being Long than Short.
Our posts are showing what we think is the most likely path that price will follow but of course we, nor anyone else, knows the exact future.
This is all about weighing probabilities and taking action in accordance with the most likely path that price will follow.
Good trading to all!
On our Dec 12th 2023 post we called out the price region we are currently in as a MAJOR TOPPING ZONE.
We have done our best to zero in on a more exact level- (i.e. our Targeted Topping Zone regions).
The fact of the matter is that even if we make a new high, we see much greater risk being Long than Short.
Our posts are showing what we think is the most likely path that price will follow but of course we, nor anyone else, knows the exact future.
This is all about weighing probabilities and taking action in accordance with the most likely path that price will follow.
Good trading to all!
ความคิดเห็น:
IWM as we predicted
ความคิดเห็น:
Thinking price should hold around this level before continuing lower
ความคิดเห็น:
Price trying to fill the gap...
Still looking lower ultimately
Still looking lower ultimately
ความคิดเห็น:
More precisely
ความคิดเห็น:
Still looking lower
Will have to tweak this count if price breaks over Wave 2 but even then still looking lower
Will have to tweak this count if price breaks over Wave 2 but even then still looking lower
ความคิดเห็น:
Price is in a corrective mode right now with the potential to make a new high (as mentioned this morning when we clarified our perspective)
The Terminal Top region is still MAJOR resistance with our anticipation that price will not break substantially over that region
The Terminal Top region is still MAJOR resistance with our anticipation that price will not break substantially over that region
ความคิดเห็น:
Near term (i.e. tomorrow) expect price to gap down at open and then almost definitely move higher to make another local high over 5200 BUT that will most likely be it for this move up. We DO NOT anticipate price making a new all time high.
Expect the ensuing downturn to be extremely volatile and swift..something akin to what we saw in the Covid crash
Lets zoom out to better understand how we are seeing the chart and why:
Expect the ensuing downturn to be extremely volatile and swift..something akin to what we saw in the Covid crash
Lets zoom out to better understand how we are seeing the chart and why:
ความคิดเห็น:
Ok price moving as expected...anticipating this making it to the terminal top area and then it should move lower
ความคิดเห็น:
Latest view
ความคิดเห็น:
Ok price is at target.
High risk here for a swift move down
BE CAREFUL!!
High risk here for a swift move down
BE CAREFUL!!
ความคิดเห็น:
Looks like an Ending Diagonal has formed
If so then price shouldnt make another high meaning this is the top
Lets see!
If so then price shouldnt make another high meaning this is the top
Lets see!
ความคิดเห็น:
Well we did say volatility was on the menu
And of course the market performs a nice stick-save and pops higher at the lowest probability point...but it changes absolutely nothing.
All of our target regions are still being respected and this market is going down
And of course the market performs a nice stick-save and pops higher at the lowest probability point...but it changes absolutely nothing.
All of our target regions are still being respected and this market is going down
ความคิดเห็น:
Zooming out from here as any marginal higher highs wont change the analysis (possibility of one last micro push to the 5215 - 5220 region)
In alignment with our big picture view we are looking down from here and await a good short entry point to begin establishing a position
In alignment with our big picture view we are looking down from here and await a good short entry point to begin establishing a position
ความคิดเห็น:
Ending Diagonal pattern being tracked
As the name suggests this should mark an end to this move
As the name suggests this should mark an end to this move
ความคิดเห็น:
Moving basically as we thought.
Still looking lower from here
Still looking lower from here
ความคิดเห็น:
We will most like consolidate until the CPI report (i think we all anticipate that coming in red hot)...
Thinking we will see some fireworks
Thinking we will see some fireworks
ความคิดเห็น:
Ole Powell is hopeful as always.
But ask yourself this question: What incentive does he have to tell you things are really bad out here? Answer: None
In our view the greater risk right now is being LONG this market...good luck if you are
Nothing guaranteed of course but man this chart is bearish
But ask yourself this question: What incentive does he have to tell you things are really bad out here? Answer: None
In our view the greater risk right now is being LONG this market...good luck if you are
Nothing guaranteed of course but man this chart is bearish
ความคิดเห็น:
Well WE WERE WRONG about the market NOT making new ATHs
Doesnt change the direction or analysis...
Doesnt change the direction or analysis...
ความคิดเห็น:
Money where mouth is..lets see how wrong we are in the overall analysis
Order waiting to be executed (will trigger roughly when price breaks 5280)
Going to start building a position
Order waiting to be executed (will trigger roughly when price breaks 5280)
Going to start building a position
ความคิดเห็น:
Blow off top of a blow top...
One more high and that should be it (FINALLY!!!)
But why wouldnt we expect a Bull market thats been raging since 2009 to go out without a fight lol
One more high and that should be it (FINALLY!!!)
But why wouldnt we expect a Bull market thats been raging since 2009 to go out without a fight lol
ความคิดเห็น:
Ok there it is
IF YOU ARE LONG PLEASE THINK ABOUT TAKING SOME PROFIT...
BE CAREFUL
IF YOU ARE LONG PLEASE THINK ABOUT TAKING SOME PROFIT...
BE CAREFUL
ความคิดเห็น:
Money where mouth
ความคิดเห็น:
Position building time
ความคิดเห็น:
PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT:
This is for the ridiculous expectations we see by a small minority in the comments(people who OWN their OWN trading will understand why we are doing this PSA)
These are IDEAS- NOT financial advice- Tradingview has that disclaimer on every idea post for a reason
We are simply small retail traders who love this trading game and like to share our ideas.
We are not, can not and will never be able to predict with certainty where price is going- and neither can anyone else
Before you get to shouting in the comments about how wrong a call we made is..POST YOUR OWN IDEA AND SHOW THE WORLD WHATS THE RIGHT CALL
An idea is NOT a trade recommendation...if you want to know our positions..which is what you should be asking about BEFORE you take action on one of our ideas...YOU SHOULD ASK
Simply said: we have our ideas and then we have our positions..two separate things smh
Almost every person in the comments with these unrealistic expectations never has any posts or ideas of their own
If you need someone else to tell you what to BUY/SELL you might want to reconsider trading.
So for the very small minority who this post is for, while we cannot and will not give out financial advice, we do offer some life advice:
Develop an INTERNAL locus of control-your trading will thank you
This is for the ridiculous expectations we see by a small minority in the comments(people who OWN their OWN trading will understand why we are doing this PSA)
These are IDEAS- NOT financial advice- Tradingview has that disclaimer on every idea post for a reason
We are simply small retail traders who love this trading game and like to share our ideas.
We are not, can not and will never be able to predict with certainty where price is going- and neither can anyone else
Before you get to shouting in the comments about how wrong a call we made is..POST YOUR OWN IDEA AND SHOW THE WORLD WHATS THE RIGHT CALL
An idea is NOT a trade recommendation...if you want to know our positions..which is what you should be asking about BEFORE you take action on one of our ideas...YOU SHOULD ASK
Simply said: we have our ideas and then we have our positions..two separate things smh
Almost every person in the comments with these unrealistic expectations never has any posts or ideas of their own
If you need someone else to tell you what to BUY/SELL you might want to reconsider trading.
So for the very small minority who this post is for, while we cannot and will not give out financial advice, we do offer some life advice:
Develop an INTERNAL locus of control-your trading will thank you
ความคิดเห็น:
Why have we been saying the Bull Market is over? And why are we looking so low?
Ok this is going to get technical so google is your friend on this one:
In our posting history you see us really calling out that a top is near around Nov 2023 because at the time the size of the larger degree B wave was 61.8% the size of the lower degree B wave
Essentially the fractal nature of the market queued us to begin looking for a top.
Once a new local high was made we begin calling out the possibility of new ATHs with the likely target area being between 5000 and 5500 w/ the 5100 area equating to a 1:1 relationship with the lower degree wave B
Target zones were marked strategically as high as 5500 because as we said we expect the larger degree waves to be larger
And ever since we have been tracking price and trying to get a more defined target
Our ideas and posts are calling out whats probable...our trades however are always (at least we try to be) in line with trend
So NO, we have NOT been LONG since Oct/Nov smh
We have been strategically getting in and out of trades in BOTH directions.
We are going to show just that in our Watch Us Trade A Bear Market post.
Its way more to how we trade and see the market but hopefully this clarifies..
Ok this is going to get technical so google is your friend on this one:
In our posting history you see us really calling out that a top is near around Nov 2023 because at the time the size of the larger degree B wave was 61.8% the size of the lower degree B wave
Essentially the fractal nature of the market queued us to begin looking for a top.
Once a new local high was made we begin calling out the possibility of new ATHs with the likely target area being between 5000 and 5500 w/ the 5100 area equating to a 1:1 relationship with the lower degree wave B
Target zones were marked strategically as high as 5500 because as we said we expect the larger degree waves to be larger
And ever since we have been tracking price and trying to get a more defined target
Our ideas and posts are calling out whats probable...our trades however are always (at least we try to be) in line with trend
So NO, we have NOT been LONG since Oct/Nov smh
We have been strategically getting in and out of trades in BOTH directions.
We are going to show just that in our Watch Us Trade A Bear Market post.
Its way more to how we trade and see the market but hopefully this clarifies..
ความคิดเห็น:
WHY DID WE TAKE A SHORT POSITION TODAY?
Chart explains it
And if Elliott Wave isnt your thing or you think its too subjective or just plain nonsense....then maybe when you see how people are going to get absolutely BURNED by this move up today you will take another look...
Could we be wrong? of course
But we dont think we are so we put our money where our mouth is.
Chart explains it
And if Elliott Wave isnt your thing or you think its too subjective or just plain nonsense....then maybe when you see how people are going to get absolutely BURNED by this move up today you will take another look...
Could we be wrong? of course
But we dont think we are so we put our money where our mouth is.
ความคิดเห็น:
We went short at roughly the red line yesterday.
Lets see what happens
Lets see what happens
ความคิดเห็น:
Please Dont Be Greedy..TAKE SOME PROFIT
ความคิดเห็น:
Remember this level...you may not see it again for a long time
ความคิดเห็น:
Another drop lower in 3...2...1
just kidding...looking lower still
just kidding...looking lower still
ความคิดเห็น:
Ok next targets...
And YES WE ARE STILL SHORTING...
As we said yesterday..THESE posts are more than just ideas because we have active positions..and are building them as we go down
And YES WE ARE STILL SHORTING...
As we said yesterday..THESE posts are more than just ideas because we have active positions..and are building them as we go down
ความคิดเห็น:
Would you look at that...
As we said:
There is a difference between these Big Idea type posts that we make...and the way we trade those ideas..
And we are about to keep showing it
STILL LOOKING LOWER
As we said:
There is a difference between these Big Idea type posts that we make...and the way we trade those ideas..
And we are about to keep showing it
STILL LOOKING LOWER
ความคิดเห็น:
Oh and as we said yesterday
We went short at the red dotted line yesterday...and today we have been shorting since the top of Wave 2
We went short at the red dotted line yesterday...and today we have been shorting since the top of Wave 2
ความคิดเห็น:
As expected.....now we are looking for a 3 wave corrective move back up
As with all elliott wave analysis we have an alternative view as well..
If the target above doesnt hold then we would temporarily look higher to the 5400 level as we called out in our MARCH 28th post which is the same zone we called out DEC 12th of last year..
BUT even if that happens the result is the same- MAJOR DOWNTURN
Like we said...we are trading now so we are executing within our ideas...when we are trading we ALWAYS have an alternative perspective and know when our analysis is invalidated...
We will define better targets as the move back higher progresses
As with all elliott wave analysis we have an alternative view as well..
If the target above doesnt hold then we would temporarily look higher to the 5400 level as we called out in our MARCH 28th post which is the same zone we called out DEC 12th of last year..
BUT even if that happens the result is the same- MAJOR DOWNTURN
Like we said...we are trading now so we are executing within our ideas...when we are trading we ALWAYS have an alternative perspective and know when our analysis is invalidated...
We will define better targets as the move back higher progresses
ความคิดเห็น:
We are already short the market in various ways but posting this IDEA aka setup...for Traders who own their own trading and see the power in this POTENTIAL price action
ความคิดเห็น:
As we said we are seeing the market as immediately bearish BUT like we also said new highs are new highs and there is the potential (although much less probable) that we make one more high with a potential final top around 5400 (5350ish))
As for Monday we are tracking 2 counts upon further review.
We see price as either dropping aggressively pretty quickly Monday (white count) or making it a little higher before the drop (orange count)
Any price movement above 5325 would have us looking to one last top around 5400...before continuing to look much lower
As for Monday we are tracking 2 counts upon further review.
We see price as either dropping aggressively pretty quickly Monday (white count) or making it a little higher before the drop (orange count)
Any price movement above 5325 would have us looking to one last top around 5400...before continuing to look much lower
ความคิดเห็น:
Guess the orange count wins...so far
Nvidia earnings will be the catalyst...Thur/Fri should see some nice volatility
The question is what direction? Guess we will see
Nvidia earnings will be the catalyst...Thur/Fri should see some nice volatility
The question is what direction? Guess we will see
ความคิดเห็น:
Thinking Nvidia pops higher regardless of what they state in their earnings
Thinking market will pop marginally higher make a new ATH and then head lower.
The alternative is NO new ATH and head lower..
The destination is the same..
Lets see
Thinking market will pop marginally higher make a new ATH and then head lower.
The alternative is NO new ATH and head lower..
The destination is the same..
Lets see
ความคิดเห็น:
Chart above tells the story for the next couple days and into next week.
The price movement and volume in particular over the last day or so shows price most likely will pop higher but the level of buying will not support the move and we will see a major reversal
Lets see!
The price movement and volume in particular over the last day or so shows price most likely will pop higher but the level of buying will not support the move and we will see a major reversal
Lets see!
ความคิดเห็น:
Morning!
Market moving as expected.
Should open higher but dont see the move picking up truly bullish steam
Watching for an aggressive reversal sooner than later
Market moving as expected.
Should open higher but dont see the move picking up truly bullish steam
Watching for an aggressive reversal sooner than later
ความคิดเห็น:
And thats what we meant by aggressive reversal
Moving as expected.
Thinking we see one more low towards 5245 and then a pull back up towards 5270ish and then we will reaccess..should that move tomorrow
Lets see!
Moving as expected.
Thinking we see one more low towards 5245 and then a pull back up towards 5270ish and then we will reaccess..should that move tomorrow
Lets see!
ความคิดเห็น:
Ok thinking resistance will hold this week and we continue on a downward path
ความคิดเห็น:
Ok still watching the same support and resistance areas
Definitely have a bearish bias but lets see what tomorrow brings
Definitely have a bearish bias but lets see what tomorrow brings
ความคิดเห็น:
Ok not much to say here
Price is playing ping with support and resistance
Still looking lower
Price is playing ping with support and resistance
Still looking lower
ความคิดเห็น:
Well well well...
The market is NOT looking good.
We have been on high alert for a while that this Bull market is running out of steam..
We are looking MUCH lower ultimately but lets take it one level at a time
Lets see!
The market is NOT looking good.
We have been on high alert for a while that this Bull market is running out of steam..
We are looking MUCH lower ultimately but lets take it one level at a time
Lets see!
ความคิดเห็น:
One more push higher into resistance and the bottom should fall out..
Lets see!
Lets see!
ความคิดเห็น:
Nothings changed
Still looking MUCH lower
Lets see!
Still looking MUCH lower
Lets see!
ความคิดเห็น:
Market taking its time
Tons of resistance up here so the bulls have some tough sledding ahead if they want the ball back
Still looking lower
Lets see..
Tons of resistance up here so the bulls have some tough sledding ahead if they want the ball back
Still looking lower
Lets see..
ความคิดเห็น:
Should start our trek lower now
ความคิดเห็น:
BIG PICTURE UPDATE:
We first publicly called out the Major Topping Zone shown on the chart on Dec 12th 2023
We have called out that zone multiple times since as where price would ultimately top (see our March 28th 2024 post for example)
All of the calls we have made since Dec 12th has been us trying to call a top within our already called out topping zone
We have consistently called out on charts 5500 as a terminal level for price
NOTHING HAS CHANGED
We see price for all intensive purposes as having topped with the potential for a small peak above 5500
What this means is that we are shorting the market at this point and hedging any long moves up
Yes our SPX shorts are technically down slightly but as we said they are hedged
Alternatively, our DOW, Russell, RSP shorts are UP..and they are up because the market as a whole is weak!
So as the chart indicates we STRONGLY feel that 3800 SPX is the destination for the market over the next year
BUCKLE UP!!!
We first publicly called out the Major Topping Zone shown on the chart on Dec 12th 2023
We have called out that zone multiple times since as where price would ultimately top (see our March 28th 2024 post for example)
All of the calls we have made since Dec 12th has been us trying to call a top within our already called out topping zone
We have consistently called out on charts 5500 as a terminal level for price
NOTHING HAS CHANGED
We see price for all intensive purposes as having topped with the potential for a small peak above 5500
What this means is that we are shorting the market at this point and hedging any long moves up
Yes our SPX shorts are technically down slightly but as we said they are hedged
Alternatively, our DOW, Russell, RSP shorts are UP..and they are up because the market as a whole is weak!
So as the chart indicates we STRONGLY feel that 3800 SPX is the destination for the market over the next year
BUCKLE UP!!!
ความคิดเห็น:
ความคิดเห็น:
We are about to witness a yield EXPLOSION
Yields should head to below 3.5% over the next year and then expect a meteoric rise throughout the end of the decade
Ask yourself this question:
What would have to be going on in our economy for yields to explode to these levels?
You may fancy us crazy/permabears/etc but 5 years from now you can best believe we are going to reference this post...and we will even if we are wrong...but we dont think we are..
Yields should head to below 3.5% over the next year and then expect a meteoric rise throughout the end of the decade
Ask yourself this question:
What would have to be going on in our economy for yields to explode to these levels?
You may fancy us crazy/permabears/etc but 5 years from now you can best believe we are going to reference this post...and we will even if we are wrong...but we dont think we are..
Buckle Up