SPX Pump is done, Next Leg down begins

20 มิ.ย. 2020

I see a good deal of posts on here, with legitimate observations predicting a bounce back up and break out up to ATHs. I don't agree, and I believe that these traders are missing out on a couple, very critical factors.

• For the Week ending 6/19: ~3100 was max-pain for SPX option holders; notice how the futures kept jumping over ~3120 keeping it above SMAs and above the resists (which got broken every day during volumed price action)
  
• This last week, a huge amount of buying was BELOW VWAP. Low volume retracements back to VWAP followed by high volume sell-offs. Institutions are not getting ready for a breakout up -- the have been offloading all week. (Retail is not selling 65k lots to bids in the middle of an upswing)
  
• It would be very dangerous to see patterns mainly created by (low vol) futures pump with little follow-through during the cash market. I don't think we have had a single trading day in the last 2 weeks that have followed through with futures going up to any real noticeable extent
  
• There is no development that will markedly 'change the market' for the upside, as the hints and hopes of even the slightest good possible news are priced in at 120% already
  

I'm expecting follow-through selling on Monday. I'm not sure it will be a huge drop, but we will re-test 3k. It is likely we will go sideways without a solid break but the peaks will be in the 3050-ish range will active retail getting out. Their will be short squeezes at the various major price point levels but nothing that will trigger sustained (albeit light) buying till we are at least well under 3000.
Small weekly waterfalls till either we get into retesting 2850, or we get a cure/treatment, and the economy opens fully.

Its gonna be a slog, it's gonna be messy, but no, this isn't a bull flag breakout.

News is still king: is we get more store reclosures, or (unlikely) states reversing/stopping re-opening, we could major gap down.

• Re-openings being questioned/reversed
  
• China responding negatively to their planned purchases / Trump being 'tough' on China
  
• Surprise reports questioning/discounting the V-shaped narrative
  

21 มิ.ย. 2020

บันทึก

My general sentiment for futures open is slightly down, maybe the 3045-area. Expecting a retracement to the 3080 area before coming back down.

Futures before pre-market cash: 3015
Prediction for cash open: 3065

If open is more than 1.5% down, we will likely get a replay of last Monday with an opening selloff piercing below 3000 before retracting above open then sideways/slight up trend all day.

If open is up, frankly, we will continue Friday and be profit-taking off all-day over VWAP

22 มิ.ย. 2020

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่

Futures got very bullish much sooner than I thought, so i closed my short from 3139 for a solid 100pt gain and rode the wave up from ~40 up to the mid-70s. Got stopped out a few times in that battleground 3080 area -- so i decide to sleep and wake up to about the same place.

Long into the open from 3089, closed that when we crossed 3100 and went short at 3113, which I closed before futures settlement.

All things considered, not a bad day, but not really the move I was looking for so I was hesitant to get aggressive.

I did, however, make some nice moves in the RUT mini, but I'm pretty sure that was more riding coattails of a big manipulation job more than market predictive analysis. Caught a nice 10pt drop with 4x short to end my lunch.

Current positions: Short from 1435 (RUT)

24 มิ.ย. 2020

ปิดการเทรด: ถึงเป้าหมายการทำกำไร

Hit some bumps in the road, but I'm putting this one in the 'worked out mostly' bin.

Thursday is the Alamo for bulls