Earnings Recession? You tell me. (Weekly SPX Chart)
I am using the SPX as it is one of the best indices for overall market analysis though various other equity charts and even Gold support the short-term future.
Technically speaking the S&P 500 (market) is oversold and will require a retrace back to the 30 RSI level for a complete bear cycle that we saw begin in Q4 2018.
- This is apparent via RSI indicator as well as in the TD Sequential I use (where 9 counts is generally the final weekly close before it completes the cycle) and as you can see...we are 4 weeks past due on that cycle (same thing happened with the last top in Q3 2018 we were about 4 weeks past due too so it isn't entirely accurate but it still shows how drastic a move could be).
Now you may ask how far this could retrace? Well if we take a look at the ichimoku green cloud - I believe that level is fair as it is also supported on EMA indicators as well (so about 10% move?).
This is a short-term trade so don't expect the entire market to cave in next week but I think a drastic retracement will occur that can become a great buy opportunity (will update next week as well hopefully).
A break below the pink trend line (on SPX chart) and/or purple RSI line (on indicator chart) will confirm this. Make sure to update the chart for the next few weeks and watch the RSI and ichimoku cloud support - good luck!
Fundamentally speaking the market is definitely off to a great start this year with news that the US-China trade deal may come to fruition and earnings season is doing well so far from the likes of
JPM, 
WFC, and some great news from DIS.
At the end of the day fundamentals will trump technicals so if earnings from today carry over into next week, expect the bull song to keep going and everyone to keep buying in.
Have a great weekend!
Technically speaking the S&P 500 (market) is oversold and will require a retrace back to the 30 RSI level for a complete bear cycle that we saw begin in Q4 2018.
- This is apparent via RSI indicator as well as in the TD Sequential I use (where 9 counts is generally the final weekly close before it completes the cycle) and as you can see...we are 4 weeks past due on that cycle (same thing happened with the last top in Q3 2018 we were about 4 weeks past due too so it isn't entirely accurate but it still shows how drastic a move could be).
Now you may ask how far this could retrace? Well if we take a look at the ichimoku green cloud - I believe that level is fair as it is also supported on EMA indicators as well (so about 10% move?).
This is a short-term trade so don't expect the entire market to cave in next week but I think a drastic retracement will occur that can become a great buy opportunity (will update next week as well hopefully).
A break below the pink trend line (on SPX chart) and/or purple RSI line (on indicator chart) will confirm this. Make sure to update the chart for the next few weeks and watch the RSI and ichimoku cloud support - good luck!
Fundamentally speaking the market is definitely off to a great start this year with news that the US-China trade deal may come to fruition and earnings season is doing well so far from the likes of
JPM, WFC, and some great news from DIS. At the end of the day fundamentals will trump technicals so if earnings from today carry over into next week, expect the bull song to keep going and everyone to keep buying in.
Have a great weekend!
บันทึก
Trading is still respecting the trend line this week (RSI still not quite at 70 yet) though we have major data releases in the coming days. I expect us to stay above the trend line and possibly break into it through the Easter weekend.บันทึก
We are now just over the overbought level on the RSI indicator. If China economic data is poor after market today expect minimal to severe decline to close off the week. Didn't expect to reach this level so soon.บันทึก
The S&P is now just hovering at the rising trend line. A break below here would be devastating leading into the long weekend.บันทึก
Took a while but price action has finally hopped over the SPY line dating back since the start of March. We are now looking for fib retracement levels / ichi clouds.Support to look for:
- $281-$282 is showing on the ichi cloud and fib retracement
Short term I expect a retrace of -5% but if it surpasses this expect the double top formation pattern to be in play.
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