What we know and what we can't prove

6 ก.พ. 2022

Trying to gauge the current wave is a tad taxing. We know Supercycle 1 ended at the beginning of 2022. This is followed by Supercycle wave 2 which is composed of an ABC corrective wave. The question is are we in the early stages of wave C and about to end Supercycle 2, or are we in the middle of wave A with plenty of plummeting ahead?

Historics would have Supercycle 2 end 49, 95, 104, 125, or 128 trading days after it began. Wave movements in the past 4 years have been getting quicker and more volatile which would point to a quicker end, but would these be the shortest wave 2 in relation to all other waves? Unlikely, but possible.

If we are in early wave C or early wave 3 (still in wave A) we should see drastic downward movement this week. I will re-evaluate if neither one of these pan out. The blocks under my red arrow contain the early estimates of where Supercycle wave 2 could end. The maximum length would have been 49 days. The lighter blue arrowed blocks contain my current estimates if we are in early wave C. These boxes should be met no later than February 17-28.

The other option is we are in the early stages of wave A's wave 3 which would see a bottom in a few more weeks followed by more major up and down swings. I do not like this scenario simply because Supercycle 2 would not end for a few months with a likely bottom below 3000. Historics says this level is way too low which is why I do not think Supercycle 2 will be prolonged. We will find out where we are by the end of February and if we can touch all-time highs again by April/May.