What if the money printer weren't going BRRR? SPX in Gold

30 พ.ย. 2020

Here's a view of the S&P 500 index divided by the price of gold. It shows a top in 2018. A trend line of consecutive peaks shows that today--even with Chairman Powell's money printer humming along, the S&P 500 index is still looking over valued. Are economic conditions better today than in 2018 and 2019? I'd say no given the covid-19 pandemic. (There's a virus, and it's killing people. This fact seems lost on the stock market?) Are corporates abilities to service their debt better today than in 2018 and 2019? No. This 2019 report from Deloitte found that corporate debt in the latest recovery (2010-2017) was weaker in quality than in the previous two recoveries (2002-2007 and 1992-2000): www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/issues-by-the-numbers/rising-corporate-debt-levels.html

What do you think about doing trend analysis SPX/Gold? What would you look for?