SPX | Market Cycles, Life Cycles & The Technological Cycle

2 ส.ค.

The biggest index in the world, goes bearish...

Hello my dear reader, are you ready for more?

The markets have been around for hundreds and hundreds of years.
The markets will continue to exist for hundreds and hundreds of years more.

We cannot let negativity take the best of us.
We cannot lose focus because the market is doing what it is supposed to do and what it has always done; it moves through different cycles, alternating between down and up.

We cannot fight between each other just because it is night, and soon, it will become day.
At one point in time we have summer but then comes winter, after a short while, summer again.

We can see cycles all throughout nature; the flowers, the animals, the moon, the sun and the stars. The markets are no different, everything is part of nature and thus the market must follow a cyclic pattern because life is not random at all. The good news is that we know that it doesn't matter what happens, it is not the end of the world.

Prices can move down, and this immediately guarantees that eventually they will move back up. The long-term trend is maximum growth and this positive ascending life cycle is only starting... We are set to experience thousands and thousands of years of sustained growth.


The SPX Technical Analysis

We will be looking at mainly two signals:

1) Rising wedge. A rising wedge pattern has already been broken, with three consecutive weeks closing red. These are strong red candles supported by high volume.

2) MACD bearish divergence. The SPX produced a strong bearish divergence with the MACD. This is a very, very strong divergence and a bearish cross is also present on the MACD.

Similar signals were present mid-2023, which led to a ~10% correction. The difference this time around is based on the change of the FEDs policies and the USA elections. Bearish volume is also higher and the stock market is all-around over-bought. A correction tends to balance things out, and once the correction is over, we resume our trajectory of sustained long-term growth.


Life Cycles

There is a tendency to belief that the world, the financial markets and anything we can think of is always on the brink of collapse, this due to the news and also past experiences. If we go by real data, facts and available global statistics, all the doom scenarios that have been proposed in the past 100 years or so never materialized.

There has been some scenarios saying that we would run out of oil, energy, etc.; Other scenarios would say that the earth would freeze by 1980. Others instead said the earth would drown due to high heat by the year 2000. Others instead insist that if the world population reached 5billion, we would all be dead for one reason or the other. Needless to say, we are now at almost 8billion and growing.

The reason why the world never ends is because we are in the positive, ascending, life growing cycle. We are just at the beginning of a massive technological cycle.

Each time there is a problem, a new solution is developed. "The Financial system is doomed!" Bitcoin shows up. Whenever a problem becomes apparent, just know that is not the end of the world, the world will continue to do just fine and we humans will continue to live and evolve. There is no way out of life, so get used to it... We are only getting started... After the bear-market/correction, we are definitely set for maximum growth.

The stock market will not stop existing.
The banks will adapt and evolve.
Many outdated systems will be weeded out, but this is not the end of the world.

Life is good. Pain encourages growth.
If you prepare, you can even avoid the pain and profit from this drop.

Namaste.

7 ส.ค.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

The drop is in and we have a two days bounce, pretty standard.


Today we see a resumption of the bearish move.
The market closed red after producing an upper wick on today's session. This gives further strength to the bearish bias.

The next drop is likely to be much, much stronger than the first one.

👉 We see ~4950 first and then low 4000s.

I hope that helps.

Namaste.