Sub-sector Relative Performance - study.

14 พ.ย.

Studying the RP of sub-sectors after the "tariff crash" to see if it had any predictive power.

SOXX : 80% to the top. 112% return.

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ETHA : 183%. -- 230% return.

BLOK 72% potential. -- 140% return. (sloped 200dma)

TAN 40% pot. -- 107% return. (Low base.. no resistance?)

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IDGT 33% pot. --- 40% return.

ARTY 56% pot. --- 95% return.

TOTAL 60% pot. --- 82% return.

UFO 43% pot. --- 123% return. (low base? near 50% fib LOG).

ROBO 39%. --- 62% return (50% FIB log support).

IBIT 41% ---- 66% return. (50% FIB support).

RING 16% --- 120%.

ICOP 34% ---- 88%.

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Performance since september:

SOXX: 30%
ETHA: ---
IBIT: ---
BLOK: 30%
TAN: 30%
IDGT: 10%
ARTY: 25%
TOTAL: ----
UFO: 20%
ROBO: 12%
RING: 32% !
ICOP: 19%.

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BLOK RS.

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IBIT. not ideal RS in ~July. and not keeping up around september. (bad?)

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RING or Gold, clear outperformance ~July. and flying BEFORE september.

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oih rally pre november (hint)

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SOXX and FAANG rally post september, prob best indicator for value?
biotech and other sectors were on pause. (as a secondary quality).
OIH was choppy in september.

Cyber security has been choppy.

Gold been going hard in september.

BTC choppy but also third bull market year.

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the best sectors pre period have an "accumulation" zone, sharp 10/20s.

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BLOK/SPX, consistent higher lows and highs.

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RING/SPX.
Probably explains the leadership (because demand).

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SOXX/spx.

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biotech/spx

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OIH/SPX outperformance and RIG output.

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BTC/SPX (as a risk on gauge?) could signal market top-top?

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Homebuilder outperformance and NAIL performance.

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Gold outperformance. Not ideal. but could be the "driver"?

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Insurance ETF outperformance and UNH. stay away?:)

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tech underperforming, probably early sign for top-top? also wasnt the case for FAANG. which was probably the reason why no immediate correction. Follow the money?

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last legs for small caps?
I remember using these graphs and would not know how to interpret.

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silver and gold.

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another dimension could be the steepness of the trend?

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TAN underperforms SOXX. maybe could just use /QQQ divide. or /SOXX (best sector)?

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Gold outperforms SOXX since early 2024. coincides with beginning of a gold rally. interesting

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BLOK outperforming SOXX. MSTR, IREN pos.

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recent strength in biotech. LABU

16 พ.ย.

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A: Insurance ETF log trend, rallying -> weak UNH, the top for UNH.
B: log trend break. dead sector. imo. second fall for UNH.

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energy had a strong 2021-2023

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break of the NVDA log trend. -- early indicator for market top.
this is why I love log trends. there's zero bias

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and probably worth to keep eye on NVDA in next 2-3 months? what would look like accumulation, could mean beginning of a crash.

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SOXX sector lagging behind in late november - probably an early warning sign for stocks (ie the market top?). Maybe that's why such quite stock market in december.

BTC break of a strong trend.

breaking another one would probably mean de-facto stock market top? this week, depending on Wednesdays NVDA earnings- and price action.
100% volatile week imo.
with an uptrendy VIX.

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BTC on log trend is at a crucial level.
Weekly charts tell the story. It looks weak. but new upside candle means reversal.

on a monthly chart, even if it rallies, it creates a HNS pattern. which means... volatile months ahead:)

w/ odds 50-50 for ABC correction. 80K BTC.

during "do not touch" period it means lower demand. Lower demand, higher supply - downside pressure, risk.
Besides, critical NVDA earnings in Wednesday. could save btc. imo.

17 พ.ย.

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3-day innertia. often coincides with bottoms? Or shows the S/D strength basically?

Confluence is when things fit the 10/20/50. Pattern break-outs?

Confluence coincides with break outs.

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same concept with gold.

//Psychologically, hard to switch between euphoria (easy %) and "range bound market". Statistically -- everything that flies -- reverts to mean or average?

Based on Qullamaggie, in this chart. There are two openings?:
-tight range break outs.
-Strong bull markets? ie bull phase.

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Macro.

Thinking in systems.

Things move, when it make sense to move.
It make sense why bitcoin rallied in 2023-2025. Or why gold moved. It wasnt the charts.

You think in systems.
When you over-estimate charts, it makes you lose sense of bigger picture.

//When Yields start droping, it cause high demand for small caps, risk on, momentum. It cause the innertia or 1st wave of demand. After some while, there's continuation of 2nd wave... people dont question the cause.
When you think in system, it makes sense why bitcoin topped now based on bigger liquidity cycle.

ie --- where does it make sense for the rich people to allocate capital?
Does anything change in the macro picture? what's different? what changes?

During Euphoria or easy % phase, people stop questioning. because they dont need to.

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ive noticed how typically for "most people". Maybe even professionals. Everyone take risk when there's a clear bull market. And they are passive and want to wait during corrections.

You have been told that it's retail investors that buy the last. but it doesnt work in practice.

Markets move based on positioning.

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even for every small correction. Typical attitude is to be passive and take risk during break outs, safe places. That has least return.

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Measuring S/D strength, using simple 50/200 crossover rule.
Where the exhaust and safe positions would be; VS where the price was. meaning, market showed strength before it was safe.

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Gold miner/SPX, 200dma sloping up.

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Big money (or pareto 20/80) is made from few spots, that are only seen longterm or using an outside view.
Many pockets have potential to earn. But big money is scarce. (!) Looking at relative basis.

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what's interesting. These "key" spots would be once in every year. more or less. Typical crowd consensus was risk aversion, neither greed or fear (no crazy risk taking).

If you do look at these spots near term, you wouldnt spot a difference.

If you study these spots long term -- it's where the big money is. (!)

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add the 20/80 influential events, that push the markets.

ie 10/20/50 downside momentum + NVDA earnings ---> predictable weakness?

19 พ.ย.

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Bottom FOMO: Element of fear, when you know everyone knows it's the bottom. even if there's slight delay.

20 พ.ย.

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best time to be bullish momentum? buying longterm.

I wonder if it rather make sense to be aggressive here, than on top flying stocks.
because here there's less resistance.

than top names like HOOD. etc. that has grown so much.

if you use ponzi analogy. there's more weight applied the higher it goes. ie more resistance. in spite of best % in short term.
I feel like psychology applies there? people that wouldnt sold on the top, might start selling heavily next time it is near ATH.. and many momentum stocks look a like? like PLTR.

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best time for momentum.
tuff markets?

and a V-shape bounce.

because of psychology (like stage cycle).

CLSK.

u want to be on things when things go easy. with ease.

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btc to prove a point.

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maybe that do be the problem with chasing sector leaders or top stocks, ignoring the longterm context?

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so this is different right?