Silver Lining in a Foggy Macro — A Low-Risk Entry with High RS

17 ก.ค.

CMP: $38.015
Buy Range: $37.95–38.05 (current zone)
Target 1: $38.60
Target 2: $39.10
Stop Loss: $37.65
Time Horizon: 2–4 sessions



Rationale:

1. Macro Tailwinds
• US Inflation Cooling: The recent softening in CPI and PPI prints has revived expectations of a Fed rate cut by September, weakening the dollar slightly and supporting precious metals.
• Real Yields Topping Out: With 10Y real yields unable to break out higher, silver (which correlates inversely) gets a tailwind.
• Global Risk Aversion: Amid rising geopolitical caution (e.g., US elections, China demand concerns), silver’s dual industrial + safe haven appeal makes it a better pick than gold on risk-reward.

2. Technical Setup
• The $37.85–37.95 zone has acted as a strong base, seeing high-volume defenses over 3 sessions.
• The false breakdown on July 16 was immediately absorbed, showing signs of strong demand.
• The structure shows a potential reversal with higher lows, and if price sustains above $38.05, we may get a quick leg toward $38.60–39.10.
• RSI (not visible here, but from broader chart) is curling up from neutral levels — a sign of early momentum building.


“You don’t buy silver just because it’s shiny; you buy it when it’s unloved and basing at a zone where risk is controlled, and macros are bending in your favor. This is one of those trades — not a moonshot, but a professional nibble.”

18 ก.ค.

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