🔥 The Number 1 Recession Indicator Signals Great Danger 🚨

4 พ.ย. 2023

The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (white) is on the rise. Historically, a rise in this indicator has always signaled a recession and a corresponding fall in asset prices.


How it's calculated:
"The Sahm Rule identifies signals related to the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months."

In other words, once unemployment starts to rise quickly, this indicator moves up and a recession is on the horizon.

Since it's inception in the 1950's, every time this indicator reaches above 0.3, the trend seems to be irreversible and only reverses back after the recession is "over". See the orange line for the performance of the SP500: it has an inverse relationship with the SAHM indicator.

Keep a close eye on this indicator. Seeing how fast it's rising, there's historically a huge probability that the US economy will see a recession somewhere in the next few months. Keep an eye out for bearish price action in stocks and crypto during this time.