Rivian Update: Continued extension or b wave?
Earlier this morning I updated y'all to a position I took in the pre-market. I bought 50 shares @ $23.47. This was a calculated move I made due to the upside potential as it was a 1:3 risk reward ratio. Normally I would like better odds than that which is why I took a small position. This minimizes potential losses while still exposing me to the upside. It would have to drop over 10% just for me to lose $150. I'll take those odds.
The primary reason I am thinking we are extending more to the upside is due to MACD on the 3min timeframe. It made a new local high with price making a new high too. This to me says price will at a minimum make a new high with a lower MACD reading before the next main retrace. That will set price up to drop on neg divergence.
On the chart you will see I have another micro-5-wave impulsive move labeled pointing us to the $26 area at a minimum, which is my primary. The ALT count to this would be a larger than normal b wave, with c about to start for a flat ABC and would end around $22-$23. This would either be wave 2 or a micro-wave 4 of some degree. We need some type of conformation though, and we won't get that until we breach some key levels.
To the upside, the first key level is our prior high, taking us preferably into the 1.618 area @ $25.24. We would then retrace for wave iv of v of (v) of 1 before raising to the yellow 0.618-0.786 fibs to finish out the move up. To the downside, the level is $22.61. Below that and a drop lower is confirmed but will also mean the move down is about over due to the flat I mentioned earlier. Hence the calculated move I made this morning. Above $28.50 and I remove the orange ALT.
Below is a 3min chart showing the micros. Check out how high the MACD went on this timeframe. This cannot and should not be ignored. I would be very surprised if a b wave made a reading this high. Not impossible, but highly doubtful. In these precarious times when price has a decision to make, it is imperative to take small positions and set stops to protect your assets. I for one, have no intentions of giving up my hard-earned capital. If we do breach our upside levels, I will most likely buy more shares and some calls during our micro-wave iv retrace. I haven't went shopping yet but would most likely be looking for a feb exp date with a strike around $26-$30. For now, I wait more clues.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
The primary reason I am thinking we are extending more to the upside is due to MACD on the 3min timeframe. It made a new local high with price making a new high too. This to me says price will at a minimum make a new high with a lower MACD reading before the next main retrace. That will set price up to drop on neg divergence.
On the chart you will see I have another micro-5-wave impulsive move labeled pointing us to the $26 area at a minimum, which is my primary. The ALT count to this would be a larger than normal b wave, with c about to start for a flat ABC and would end around $22-$23. This would either be wave 2 or a micro-wave 4 of some degree. We need some type of conformation though, and we won't get that until we breach some key levels.
To the upside, the first key level is our prior high, taking us preferably into the 1.618 area @ $25.24. We would then retrace for wave iv of v of (v) of 1 before raising to the yellow 0.618-0.786 fibs to finish out the move up. To the downside, the level is $22.61. Below that and a drop lower is confirmed but will also mean the move down is about over due to the flat I mentioned earlier. Hence the calculated move I made this morning. Above $28.50 and I remove the orange ALT.
Below is a 3min chart showing the micros. Check out how high the MACD went on this timeframe. This cannot and should not be ignored. I would be very surprised if a b wave made a reading this high. Not impossible, but highly doubtful. In these precarious times when price has a decision to make, it is imperative to take small positions and set stops to protect your assets. I for one, have no intentions of giving up my hard-earned capital. If we do breach our upside levels, I will most likely buy more shares and some calls during our micro-wave iv retrace. I haven't went shopping yet but would most likely be looking for a feb exp date with a strike around $26-$30. For now, I wait more clues.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
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ความคิดเห็น:
Looking like a i-ii, 1-2 formed about to raise for 3 of iii
การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่:
Bought another 200 shares. That puts me at only 250 shares.
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Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
