Ferrari (RACE) Catalyst Scorecard AND 2026 Outlook

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Ferrari (RACE) Catalyst Scorecard AND 2026 Outlook
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1. 🏎 New Model Launches & Portfolio (9/10)
Ferrari’s 2023–26 lineup is packed with high-end launches. Recent additions include the Roma Spider, SF90 XX, 296 Challenge, and 499P Modificata. Demand for the Purosangue SUV has been overwhelming, with early orders suspended and deliveries backlogged into 2026. Coming next: the 849 Testarossa plug-in hybrid deliveries H2 2025/Q1 2026 and the F80 hybrid hypercar limited series, ~1,200 hp. These models should sustain ASP growth and keep exclusivity intact.
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2. 🔌 EV & Hybrid Transition (9/10)
Ferrari is phasing electrification deliberately. After hybrids like the SF90 and 296, Ferrari will unveil its first fully electric car in October 2025 deliveries start 2026. A new “e-building” in Maranello is ready to expand capacity by ~6,000 units annually. Ferrari is building in-house motors and batteries while still pledging to keep V12 ICE alive as long as possible. This balance between heritage and compliance ensures both regulatory cover and customer enthusiasm.
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3. 💰 Pricing Power & Personalization (9/10)
Ferrari’s bespoke strategy fuels unmatched pricing power. Recent results showed hundreds of millions in incremental profit from high-priced halo models Daytona SP3, 499P Modificata and personalization demand. Personalization now represents nearly one-fifth of revenues. Carefully managed price hikes on core models, combined with ultra-limited editions, cement Ferrari’s position as the most profitable automaker per unit.
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4. 🌍 Global Demand & Wealth Resilience (8/10)
About three-quarters of Ferrari’s sales go to repeat customers, and nearly half to collectors owning multiple Ferraris. The expanding global wealthy class adds to the demand pool. Ferrari’s sales are well balanced across regions; China is only ~10%, limiting exposure to that slowdown. Wealth concentration in the U.S., Europe, and the Middle East provides resilience against macro shocks.
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5. 📈 Order Backlog & Supply Discipline (8/10)
Ferrari’s order book is sold out through 2026/early 2027. The company deliberately caps production e.g. Purosangue SUV shipments limited to ~20% of total to preserve scarcity. This ensures pricing discipline and supports margin expansion. With supply tightly managed, Ferrari avoids the discounting and inventory overhangs that plague mass-market automakers.
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6. 💵 Shareholder Returns & Capital Allocation (7.5/10)
Ferrari’s capital return story is strong. Annual dividends and share buybacks together exceed €750 million. The €2 billion buyback program through 2026 is ongoing. At the same time, Ferrari invests aggressively in R&D e-building, hybrid/EV systems without margin erosion. The balance between shareholder distributions and future growth spending is a key investor confidence driver.
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7. ⚖ U.S./EU Tariffs & Trade (7/10)
A recent U.S.–EU deal cut auto tariffs, enabling Ferrari to avoid planned price hikes in the U.S. and improving margins slightly. Regulatory pressure on emissions is real, but Ferrari’s measured EV roadmap addresses compliance. Trade risks are less critical for Ferrari than for volume automakers, but favorable deals add incremental margin upside.
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8. 🏆 Brand & Competitive Moat (9/10)
Ferrari’s brand power is unmatched. It combines scarcity, desirability, and F1 heritage to justify luxury-goods multiples more in line with Hermès than Porsche. The brand enables Ferrari to command unmatched ASPs and maintain margins north of 25%. Ferrari’s intangible moat protects it against both cyclical demand dips and competitive threats.
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9. ⚔ Competition & Luxury Peers (6/10)
Direct competitors—Lamborghini, McLaren, Rimac—lack Ferrari’s scale, heritage, and breadth. Luxury EV entrants pose some risk, but Ferrari’s controlled rollout and customer loyalty limit the threat. Peer comparisons place Ferrari firmly alongside high-end luxury brands, not mass-market automakers, underscoring its unique positioning.
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10. 📉 Macro & Economic Cycle (6/10)
Ferrari is somewhat insulated but not immune. A sharp global downturn or wealth destruction could dampen orders. However, its backlog, exclusivity, and personalization revenue provide cushions. Even in recessions, Ferrari can slow production and still maintain pricing power.
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Catalyst Scorecard
Rank Catalyst Score
1 New Model Launches & Portfolio 9.0
2 EV & Hybrid Strategy 9.0
3 Pricing Power & Personalization 9.0
4 Brand & Competitive Moat 9.0
5 Global Demand & Wealth Trends 8.0
6 Order Book & Supply Discipline 8.0
7 Shareholder Returns 7.5
8 U.S./EU Tariffs & Trade 7.0
9 Competition & Luxury Peers 6.0
10 Macro & Economic Cycle 6.0
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Valuation Scenarios
• Bull Case ($700–$750): Successful EV debut, robust demand for new models, strong margins, continued buybacks.
• Base Case ($580–$620): Order backlog supports steady revenue growth, modest EV contribution, pricing discipline.
• Bear Case ($350–$400): Macro downturn or execution missteps lead to cancellations and lower margins.

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