The question is not IF, but HOW HARD we're about to pull back

23 ก.พ. 2020

Looking at the QQQ in the weekly and monthly chart we can see that we've reached - once again - the top of the monthly uptrend channel (purple) which dates back to June '09. The repeated consequence of this scenario so far was a pullback between 6,5% -23,5% in a couple of weeks depending on the overbought conditions on the weekly charts. The monthly RSI shows a bearish divergence with RSI hitting resistance this month as well.
On the weekly chart we can see another clear top in the makeing - bouncing of of the bright green weekly resistance line with a bearish MACD-cross in the daily chart.

When we look the the Fibonacci Retracements of the past pullbacks we could now estimate a retrace to at least 0.382, if not even 0.618 level .... meaning between 9,5% to 16%+ pullback.

With the whole market sentiment at an all time bullish sentiment, the corona virus spreading and an imminent decline of corporate earnings, stock buybacks and uncertain outcome of a possible supply chain breakdown in the industries we could see fear spreading very quickly once the market stars to react - which it did already, but only in a subtle way....

23 ก.พ. 2020

บันทึก

Monthly chart as add-on