My short and longterm projection on SPY and Nvidia

7 ก.ย.

Hi all,

Welcome to my first published idea!

Summery of the video:

As it is a big move I felt the need to publish this. Making sure Bulls will know what could most probably happen in my opinion when SPY and Nvidia will reach the upcoming highs and make decision whether to hold or sell.

I believe we have reached a temporary low on Nvidia and SPY on Friday Sept 6th. As we have seen after the YEN carry trade dip, I believe we will see a new run up creating a LPSY to 124.5 for Nvidia and 562 on SPY. This should be completed by if my theory is right in the last week of September, so Friday 27th.

If these levels are indeed rejected we will see a significant down trend/ correction.
I am basing this theory on the existing sell and buy OBs that are in place on these levels. Also if we look at the bullish run up that we have seem on both symbols it has not seen a proper correction yet. Also understanding how the market and Market makers work, I believe it needs to retest all these levels. Creating a what will look as a healthy pullback on the monthly charts back to the 200 EMA till March 2025. From there on we will see a change of sentiment and it will go back to bullish trend. But before that can happen SPY will have to hit 437 and Nvidia the absolute low of 14.5.

Of course there is always a possibility we continue this bullish trend and this theory will be invalid if both break 124.5 and 562 and continue to move up through October.

Hope you enjoyed this idea and happy trading! Trade what you see, not what you hope to see!
Have beautiful day everyone!

7 ก.ย.

บันทึก

Slight update to the idea!!

If the upward trend line is broken on Monday morning and we continue to see it moving down aggressively, I am expecting it to bounce up in the case of SPY at 515 and at 90 in the case of Nvidia, so then as I am a daytrader, it would be short on Monday first and then a long from 90.5/515. I will have to see how this bounce proceeds in a possible uptrend, but for now this does not mean that the correction mentioned will, not happen. It will just be on hold till we reject most probably on the levels mentioned earlier, or maybe a bit lower, I see 122 for Nvidia, SPY most probably at 558, before continuing the trend downwards.

I will keep updating this idea as we go, but I did want to mention this possibility of continuing down, before we bounce up from these mentioned levels.

13 ก.ย.

บันทึก

This idea has been going a lot faster than expected, SPY reached target indeed failed to break through resistance level M4 at 562, bit a mass sell off did not happen (yet)

On the other hand we had Nvidia failing to break M3 resistance level up to the 120s, which could indicate a move down for next week, but support was strong enough to keep it up for now.

The run up that we have seen in such short time in a week full of weak economical data has been an interesting watch, or as someone said it was an enigma and I strongly believe that sentiment is turning and the. market is nervous!

With another turbulent week ahead with new data sets, upcoming rate cuts it will be interesting to see how this evolves. Nvidia and SPY will probably try to break these resistance levels again next week. If sustained with good news maybe break them, but for now I am stepping away from these 2 to see what happens next and next week will be a decisive week on the longterm trend.
On the short term I expect both to drop to below mentioned levels:

Nvidia 118.46 / 117.17 / 116 below these levels as seen in previous fall it basically turns into a freefall.

SPY 560.72 / 558.94 / 557.19 / 555.95 / 549.25

Have a great weekend all and trade safe! Dont catch a falling knife!