NQ/QQQ Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (Jun5-9)

5 มิ.ย. 2023

My long term bias for NQ has changed from Neutral to Bullish. ATHs may now be a magnet for price. That said it has moved a lot in a short period of time and is due for a pullback. Much depends on how names like AAPL an MSFT react as they come into their ATHs. Buy the dip may soon be back in play if market breadth continues to improve.

SUMMARY
• Nasdaq posted a 1.53% gain last week after trading in a range of 361 points.
• NQ closed above the longer term 618 Fib RT for the second week in a row.
• With the second close above the 618 Fib my long term bias has changed from Neutral to Bullish
• NQ only 14.8% off its ATH.
• The 618 Fib RT (14314) if first support
• 1.13 Fib extension at 14572 is first resistance. The 1.272 Fib extension is the second resistance.
• Strongest sectors to close the week were XLK, XLY, XLC & XLRE. Weakest was XLU & XLP
• All sectors closed green on the week pointing to improving market breadth.
• Currently rally led by MEGA cap tech stocks must be supported by broader market for trend continuation.
• Only 46% of stocks are now above their 200 SMAs.
• Earnings this week include reports from NIO, THO, DOCU TCOM, GME
• A retest of the Aug 16th breakout zone is likely before trend continuation.
• Buy the Dip may return as the ATH is now in play.

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday US S&P PMI, US Factory Orders & US ISM PMI
Tuesday Nothing notable
Wednesday Boc Rate Decision, EIA Crude Inventories US Trade Balance & Yellen Speaks
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims & US Wholesale Inventories
Friday Canadian Unemployment rate

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday GTLB
Tuesday CIEN, SJM, THO
Wednesday CPB, GME, TCOM
Thursday DOCU
Friday NIO

BULLISH NOTES

NQ broke through the Aug 16th Pivot
NQ closed above the longer term 618 Fib RT
EMA are stacked
Aggressive sectors outperforming defensive sectors
All sectors close green increasing breadth
Debt ceiling limit has been increased
Potential beginning of month inflows

BEARISH NOTES
Stoch 5.1 is Overbought
Daily RSI is Overbought
Potential hard reversal at the 618 Fib RT/ 1.13 Fib X
MEGA cap stock are extended and near resistance zones
Earning season momentum will fade
Potential shock event (more bank failures)
VIX is below 15 (sell zone)
Aug 16th breakout level has not been re-tested yet.

5 มิ.ย. 2023

บันทึก

NQ_F has moved above the 1.13 Fib X and has broken the top of Friday's pin bar which is very bullish. This puts the top of the red box in play as next target. Any break back below the 618 Fib would negate the bullish price action.

6 มิ.ย. 2023

บันทึก

NQ_F price has pulled back again below the 1.13 Fib X. Needs to reclaim the 1.13 for bullish continuation. Price still above 618 fib so longer term bull trend still intact. Price has moved up a lot in a short period of time so consolidation and pull backs are to be expected in the longer term trend. A deeper pull back may be required to draw in more buyers.

7 มิ.ย. 2023

บันทึก

NQ_F made another attempt to break above the 1.13 extension and make new high but was rejected once more. May need to pull back all the way to the top of the green box before enough buyers come in to push it higher. Challenging to trade intra day with the sharp corrective moves.

8 มิ.ย. 2023

บันทึก

NQ_F The third rejection at the 1.13X took it back to the top of the green box. Watching for support here. If support fails potential move lower to the Aug 16th high/21 ema and breakout point. Out sized moves possible right now.

9 มิ.ย. 2023

บันทึก

Support came in nicely offering a good lower time frame pattern to trade. Now back looking to test the 1.13 once again. Treat the bottom of the red box as resistance until is not. If price breaks though my target to the upside is the top of the red box. Note that prices have been adjusted on the continuous contract for the contract roll over from June to Sept.