Indices gain and close higher, are bulls in control?
NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 23-12-21
In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.
O 17066.80
H 17118.65
L 17015.55
C 17072.60
EOD +117.15 points / +0.69%
SGX Nifty 23-12-21 @ 1855 = +23
FII DII = + Not yet available
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart
Nifty opened with a gap-up of 100 points and as usual, there was a mini sell-off. It then bounced back from above 17000 and then made attempts to cross 17100 but met with resistance and then faded.
This time it moved closer to 17000 but again found support and crossed 17100 but the customary 1300h selling coupled with expiry day volatility ensured that it remained volatile and finally ended well below 17100.
The overall movement was range bound within 100+ points, however, the India Vix gives a different view as it has fallen.
Nifty and Bank Nifty have made a higher high and a higher low.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 5 Lifters contributed = 671
Top 5 Draggers contributed = 14
Net = +53
BANK NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 3 Lifters contributed = 151
Top 3 Draggers contributed = 27
Net = +124
POSITIVES
Bank Nifty and Nifty together have closed above key psycho levels of 35000 and 17000 respectively.
Bajaj twins have chosen to be the lifters today and the bounce back in HDFC and Kotak Bank is a good sight as these two have remained under pressure for the last few days.
Infosys has closed at a new ATH and has helped Nifty in the last few sessions.
NEGATIVES
Reliance, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank ended in the red despite the overall positivity. Their inability to sustain at higher levels is not a good sign for the bulls.
Higher levels in Indices appear to be attracting sellers.
TRADING RANGE FOR 23 DEC 21
Nifty support = 16700-800 revised upwards considering the fact the low for the day was above 17000.
Nifty resistance = 17100-200-260-300
Bank Nifty Support = 34500-800
Bank Nifty resistance = 35500-700-800
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
Nifty OHLC above 17000 and Bank Nifty OHLC above 35000. This is refreshingly different and a positive sign. The key is to end the week in this manner.
Even though the indices have ended up, the extent of movement is not wide enough as compared to yesterday. This could either mean that the indices are consolidating on the way up or are facing hard resistance at higher levels.
We have experienced many times that the indices tend to give a feeling that they are unstable but then end up moving up higher over a period of a few days leaving many retailers who may be waiting for the right opportunity. That is why it is best to keep partially adding to the portfolio holdings at good levels. 1
There is a sudden spike in the Covid cases in Mumbai and that is not a good sign. This along with Omicron cases may weigh in on the indices should the situation worsen. It is better to be cautious for now.
What do you feel about this?
Here is the link to the video:
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
23-12-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.
O 17066.80
H 17118.65
L 17015.55
C 17072.60
EOD +117.15 points / +0.69%
SGX Nifty 23-12-21 @ 1855 = +23
FII DII = + Not yet available
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart
Nifty opened with a gap-up of 100 points and as usual, there was a mini sell-off. It then bounced back from above 17000 and then made attempts to cross 17100 but met with resistance and then faded.
This time it moved closer to 17000 but again found support and crossed 17100 but the customary 1300h selling coupled with expiry day volatility ensured that it remained volatile and finally ended well below 17100.
The overall movement was range bound within 100+ points, however, the India Vix gives a different view as it has fallen.
Nifty and Bank Nifty have made a higher high and a higher low.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 5 Lifters contributed = 671
Top 5 Draggers contributed = 14
Net = +53
BANK NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 3 Lifters contributed = 151
Top 3 Draggers contributed = 27
Net = +124
POSITIVES
Bank Nifty and Nifty together have closed above key psycho levels of 35000 and 17000 respectively.
Bajaj twins have chosen to be the lifters today and the bounce back in HDFC and Kotak Bank is a good sight as these two have remained under pressure for the last few days.
Infosys has closed at a new ATH and has helped Nifty in the last few sessions.
NEGATIVES
Reliance, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank ended in the red despite the overall positivity. Their inability to sustain at higher levels is not a good sign for the bulls.
Higher levels in Indices appear to be attracting sellers.
TRADING RANGE FOR 23 DEC 21
Nifty support = 16700-800 revised upwards considering the fact the low for the day was above 17000.
Nifty resistance = 17100-200-260-300
Bank Nifty Support = 34500-800
Bank Nifty resistance = 35500-700-800
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
Nifty OHLC above 17000 and Bank Nifty OHLC above 35000. This is refreshingly different and a positive sign. The key is to end the week in this manner.
Even though the indices have ended up, the extent of movement is not wide enough as compared to yesterday. This could either mean that the indices are consolidating on the way up or are facing hard resistance at higher levels.
We have experienced many times that the indices tend to give a feeling that they are unstable but then end up moving up higher over a period of a few days leaving many retailers who may be waiting for the right opportunity. That is why it is best to keep partially adding to the portfolio holdings at good levels. 1
There is a sudden spike in the Covid cases in Mumbai and that is not a good sign. This along with Omicron cases may weigh in on the indices should the situation worsen. It is better to be cautious for now.
What do you feel about this?
Here is the link to the video:
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
23-12-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
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