Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #3 - NFLX Channel Break

17 ธ.ค. 2024

The market is beginning to look a lot more bearish this week IMO, so starting to look at some short setups after only taking longs basically since the election. Wouldn't be surprised if we had a bullish reaction after FOMC and into the end of the year, but expecting downside at this point.

NFLX may be a good candidate for a short, clean channel break and has already failed on a retest once. Don't think I'd short here, maybe on another channel test or ATH test. I'd mainly be looking for puts if it breaks back below $909 and fails on a retest. Final downside target for this one will be a full retracement of the move from where the channel started around $859.

18 ธ.ค. 2024

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่

Clean break of $909, this is a name I'd be looking to sell rips on if it can't reclaim. No retest yet either so that's on watch for an entry.

20 ธ.ค. 2024

บันทึก

Perfect retest for the entry today. I took took some puts, looking to ride it down to $859. Looks to me like SPY is not going to hold $585 so feeling comfortable for now. Stop is on a reclaim of $909. Will try to do some more active trading updates with real entries and exits like this in the future.

imgur.com/YBVceyX

20 ธ.ค. 2024

บันทึก

Well that looked good until it didn't. All the parts of the plan triggered with the break of $909 and failure on a retest. I don't mind having a loose stop in these conditions, but gonna have to gamble and hold over the weekend or just exit. Could have exited at open for profit but that wasn't the plan. Not ideal, maybe can exit if we pull back before close. I almost averaged down and almost stopped out but decided to do neither for now. Might look at some longer expirations soon.

Main thing keeping me in the trade is that it just retraced 100% of the FOMC move and and stalled. NQ and ES were able to move above yesterday's high, but VX did not break yesterday's low. I see this pump as a short squeeze which leaves it vulnerable to a quick reversal but we'll see. Don't think the rally has legs for now but we've seen these instant recoveries this time and time again.

24 ธ.ค. 2024

ปิดการเทรด: ถึงเป้าหมายการตัดขาดทุน

Welp that didn't work. NFLX had one last test of $909 yesterday before blasting off today. Looks pretty bullish now, it has both an ascending and descending wedge break and is back up near ATH.

That's one of the first trades I've shared here so far, sucks it was a loser but that's how it goes. Should have picked the ES or VX trade to share instead. Oh well, I will try to share the plan and trades for one of the top 5 ideas per week assuming they trigger. Hopefully next week will be better, but not sure if I'll do anything or wait for the new year.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!