Where are we going? Seems a lot more like a 2008 relief bounce..

Let's face the reality, there was a lot of pain those weeks, isn't it?
I was checking MMTH and find some useful ideas.


From MMTH we can understand the health of US Market. Actually we have only 20% of company above 200 average.
2008 showed us a similar situation with a long dump and increasing fear in stock market.



However we see clearly a DeadCat jump exactly in May followd by two major dumps.



2022 Looks quite similar, only little shifted.
A copy paste from 2008, can give us some trigger moments

• Pump from half May to half Jul
  
• Dump till December
  
• 5 Month for accumulation
  

I like to make compare between graphs as check :

Back in 2008 UsOil pumped from 95$ to 140$


Now UsOil arrived at 100$. A friendly reminder is to keep in consideration we are heading thru storm season from around August, and usually the best place for storms are exactly on Gulf of Mexico Area. If market will try a rebounce Crude will jump even higer, and when reached the top, storms will complete the rising spike pain. In the worst case it really can reach 200$ /brl... not so good, isn't?

Let's find other indicators...

DXY give some more hints. It spiked a lot on late 2008.


DXY is already spiking now. This can shift our DeadCat Bounce idea in a more Bullish idea. Maybe we already reached the bottom and we must wait 5 month to recover?


If DXY will playout fine, this means we are heading for about 5 month accumulation and from October/November market will pump.

And as further compare

Natural Gas is the perfect Crisis indicator.
Prices for Natural Gas go up longer than Crude. Only when Natural Gas will start to dump costantly, than the game is finished.

I think this can be usufeul for today.