a daily price action after hour update - gold
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
Gold
comment: 2350 is the big line in the sand for both sides. Bears did it big time by closing below the big bull trend line from March and consecutive daily closes below the 20ema. Problem for them is, 2300 - 2350 was huge support for 2 months now and I doubt bears can break it that easily. My bear channel from the weekly outlook is still valid though.
current market cycle: tight trading range
key levels: 2350 - 2380
bull case: Big support 2300-2350 and bulls need a daily close above the ema (2380) again. Right now they have not shown strength but neither have the bears or we would have traded lower already.
Invalidation is below 2300.
bear case: Bears see this as a small pull-back in the new bear trend (started with the double top on the daily chart) down to 2170-2200. They need much bigger selling pressure to get below 2300 though.
Invalidation is above 2390.
short term: Completely neutral inside given range.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2450. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long low of last week 2349 after bar 3 (signal bar) - bar 4 = entry bar
Gold
comment: 2350 is the big line in the sand for both sides. Bears did it big time by closing below the big bull trend line from March and consecutive daily closes below the 20ema. Problem for them is, 2300 - 2350 was huge support for 2 months now and I doubt bears can break it that easily. My bear channel from the weekly outlook is still valid though.
current market cycle: tight trading range
key levels: 2350 - 2380
bull case: Big support 2300-2350 and bulls need a daily close above the ema (2380) again. Right now they have not shown strength but neither have the bears or we would have traded lower already.
Invalidation is below 2300.
bear case: Bears see this as a small pull-back in the new bear trend (started with the double top on the daily chart) down to 2170-2200. They need much bigger selling pressure to get below 2300 though.
Invalidation is above 2390.
short term: Completely neutral inside given range.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2450. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long low of last week 2349 after bar 3 (signal bar) - bar 4 = entry bar
