JUPUSDT (Bybit) is trading near the lower end of its autumn range after a clean 4H downtrend from the 0.33–0.34 area. My 4H EMA deviation system has just printed a long signal as price extends away from the higher-timeframe averages.
Technical setup (#4h)
Price is below the 4H, 1D and 3D EMAs, with Dev% on multiple TFs showing strong downside extension (high single-digit / low double-digit % below the mean).
We’ve just tagged a new local low around 0.25–0.26 with several multi-TF exhaustion markers firing near the lower ATR band.
Overhead, the first liquidity pocket and resistance cluster sits around 0.26–0.28, with a larger supply/FVG zone and EMA confluence around 0.30–0.31.
I treat this move as a late leg of the existing selloff and a potential mean-reversion opportunity back into the 4H EMA ribbon and prior supply.
Strategy stats (this 4H deviation system)
Backtest/forward sample: 33 trades, all longs
Win rate: ~69.7% (23 wins / 10 losses)
Avg PnL per trade: ~+4.1%
Avg winning trade: ~+10.0%
Avg losing trade: ~−9.6%
Avg bars in trade: ~34 bars on #4h (≈ 5–6 days), with losers typically lasting longer than winners
The system is built to catch oversold 4H swings with a relatively high hit rate and symmetric win/loss size, so sticking to invalidation levels is crucial.
Trade plan (swing 3–7 days)
Entry: around 0.26 (current long triggered in this area).
Main target: 0.300–0.305 — previous 4H supply zone and confluence with the EMA band.
Stop / invalidation: below 0.247. A 4H close under this level would mean the current demand failed and opens the door toward deeper supports around 0.23–0.22.
This setup offers roughly 3:1 R:R from entry to the 0.30–0.305 target.
Fundamental snapshot (Jupiter)
Jupiter is the main DEX aggregator and perps venue on Solana. Over the last 30 days:
Protocol fees / revenue are roughly $78.8M / $19.0M, showing a robust on-chain business across spot + perps.
Governance approved a burn of ~130M JUP (~4% of circulating supply) from the Litterbox Trust (vote passed on 4 Nov 2025).
Token unlocks continue on a scheduled basis (e.g. ~53.47M JUP on 28 Oct 2025), keeping some overhang in the short term.
November 2025: launch of the Jupiter ICO / launchpad platform, adding another product line on top of swaps and perps.
Saros DLMM integration is aimed at deeper liquidity for JUP and ecosystem pairs.
Net read: cash-flow-positive DeFi infra with upcoming product catalysts, but short-term price still sensitive to unlocks and derivatives positioning — a good environment for volatile swings and mean-reversion trades.
Alternative scenario
If unlock / derivative selling pressure accelerates and JUP starts closing 4H candles below 0.247, I’ll consider this idea invalid and look for a new deviation long lower in the 0.23–0.22 zone rather than averaging down.
Not financial advice — this is my structured 4H EMA deviation long on JUP, combining system stats with current Jupiter fundamentals.
Technical setup (#4h)
Price is below the 4H, 1D and 3D EMAs, with Dev% on multiple TFs showing strong downside extension (high single-digit / low double-digit % below the mean).
We’ve just tagged a new local low around 0.25–0.26 with several multi-TF exhaustion markers firing near the lower ATR band.
Overhead, the first liquidity pocket and resistance cluster sits around 0.26–0.28, with a larger supply/FVG zone and EMA confluence around 0.30–0.31.
I treat this move as a late leg of the existing selloff and a potential mean-reversion opportunity back into the 4H EMA ribbon and prior supply.
Strategy stats (this 4H deviation system)
Backtest/forward sample: 33 trades, all longs
Win rate: ~69.7% (23 wins / 10 losses)
Avg PnL per trade: ~+4.1%
Avg winning trade: ~+10.0%
Avg losing trade: ~−9.6%
Avg bars in trade: ~34 bars on #4h (≈ 5–6 days), with losers typically lasting longer than winners
The system is built to catch oversold 4H swings with a relatively high hit rate and symmetric win/loss size, so sticking to invalidation levels is crucial.
Trade plan (swing 3–7 days)
Entry: around 0.26 (current long triggered in this area).
Main target: 0.300–0.305 — previous 4H supply zone and confluence with the EMA band.
Stop / invalidation: below 0.247. A 4H close under this level would mean the current demand failed and opens the door toward deeper supports around 0.23–0.22.
This setup offers roughly 3:1 R:R from entry to the 0.30–0.305 target.
Fundamental snapshot (Jupiter)
Jupiter is the main DEX aggregator and perps venue on Solana. Over the last 30 days:
Protocol fees / revenue are roughly $78.8M / $19.0M, showing a robust on-chain business across spot + perps.
Governance approved a burn of ~130M JUP (~4% of circulating supply) from the Litterbox Trust (vote passed on 4 Nov 2025).
Token unlocks continue on a scheduled basis (e.g. ~53.47M JUP on 28 Oct 2025), keeping some overhang in the short term.
November 2025: launch of the Jupiter ICO / launchpad platform, adding another product line on top of swaps and perps.
Saros DLMM integration is aimed at deeper liquidity for JUP and ecosystem pairs.
Net read: cash-flow-positive DeFi infra with upcoming product catalysts, but short-term price still sensitive to unlocks and derivatives positioning — a good environment for volatile swings and mean-reversion trades.
Alternative scenario
If unlock / derivative selling pressure accelerates and JUP starts closing 4H candles below 0.247, I’ll consider this idea invalid and look for a new deviation long lower in the 0.23–0.22 zone rather than averaging down.
Not financial advice — this is my structured 4H EMA deviation long on JUP, combining system stats with current Jupiter fundamentals.
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คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน