IWM/M2 - Potential Head and Shoulders Reversal

12 เม.ย. 2021

With M2 up around 25% since last January, leading to higher equity inflows in the past 5 months, than in the past 12 years combined, price has become quite distorted. When you divide the indexes by M2, you'll notice that price action looks a lot more like it did pre QE days, when Fib retracements actually worked to indicate the strength of a "bounce". With the previous high showing us a solid rejection on the Russell (IWM), and with the S&P, and QQQ both showing potential tops with a 1.618 Fib test, and a double top formation, respectively, we could finally be seeing the last November like, face ripping rally to new ATH's. With long delta exposure in the 92.8th percentile, we're more than due for a correction. But, unfortunately, everyone is sitting on the same side of the boat, and is completely blind to risk. Just look at the Vix, no one wants risk protection right now. It's quite shocking to witness...