TVC:GOLD   สัญญาการซื้อขายส่วนต่างทองคำ (ดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ / ออนซ์)
Technical analysis: Xau-Usd (which I always use on my commentary) broke the #1,730.80 Resistance but quickly retraced and got Sold back below it (since DX is Trading on side swings) and in my opinion if the current Hourly 1 candle (which is the breakout candle) breaks the #1,727.80, then I will see test towards the Hourly 1 chart Bottom on the #1,717.80 Lower Low upper belt. Current configuration offers me decent Medium-term opportunity, but for Short-term Traders, Trading on such Price-action will only trigger Stop-losses without bringing any benefits and is only suitable for Scalpers, taking Profits within #10 point variance. This is sideways on a #12 hour basis or at least the equilibrium between the spot price (Xau-Usd) and Futures (GC) is regained, which as I have been mentioning, is the catalyst for the next move along with the Bond notes. If the current Hourly 1 candle turns red though, Gold will remain Neutral on #1-2 session base with #1,750.80 as an limit. Again, the proportional rise of Gold on yesterday’s session against the decline on Bond notes should tell a lot about Gold's underlying trend and why Gold is following Bond notes. Again, the first test on the Resistance is so far unsuccessful as Short-term Traders seem to withdraw from the market, awaiting for confirmation by the Wall Street opening Bell today. The Hourly 4 chart is turning Neutral and as a result Gold may be going towards Lower ground, as it is well repeated cycle for almost #11 sessions now. However, if Gold breaks my Support and Triangle which Gold respects, that will be quick Selling response and a call for #1,717-80 second Support test and #1,700.80 Lower Low extension, that’s why I am ready with my set of Selling orders to pursue lower Targets and Gold’s ultimate Bottom, as my annual projection of Gold is way below of #1.600,80 psychological barrier. If Gold breaks first Support, it will be an aggressive downfall and quiet a Bearish continuation Intra-day (which I will later Buy), if not - Resistance test is possible, but both scenarios point out to a Neutral underlying trend and side swings. I am certain in Selling sequence and see no reason to change my Medium-term Bearish perspective, as it is surely within my models, but since my Yearly Profits were great and my margin can handle it, I engaged a bit earlier than expected (without waiting for confirmation).


My position: Very Volatile Short-term outlook as even though the DX keeps rising (far from declining), Gold doesn't gain ground, on the contrary it is on a very weak Hourly 4 candle currently. However the pattern since the January #6 Higher High is descending and having clear Higher Low’s and Lower Low’s, pointing Traders that stronger proportion uptrend / recovery is still out of the question. Hourly 4 chart is Trading within a Triangle with the Price-action exactly within upper Lower Low zone and trendline (valid until #1,750.80) offers excellent R/R on a Selling Trade I executed. My analysis filters unexpected Medium-term reversals and my model Technically aims for #1,678.80 Lower Low extension then #1,651.80 stabilization zone. I have engaged my Selling order calling for #1,700.80 extension, with Stop-loss on a bit wider range since my margin can handle it.

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