ARE LBMA RUMORS A SHAM? WE WILL KNOW AT 2765.

6 ก.พ.

In last notes I wrote that yellow route would mean prices move for 2975+, on its way to 3333 and ultimately 4900-5000. The short term momentum is implying top is in, and while this is not final, I just cannot make that route make sense in the long term picture. So I see only two routes forward that makes sense, and I think it's BLUE ROUTE.

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1) to disprove yellow route, price must move under 2790, preferably at least 2775
2) the topping pattern favors 2765
3) to disprove black route, price must move under 2765 meaningfully
4) to at least 2725, but my call is 2705-2715

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5) THIS WOULD BE STRONG BUY FOR 3100

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6) BUT WOULD ALSO MEAN 2450-2550 AFTER THAT

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7:28 AM ET, 2/7, so an hour before NFP and...

7) overnight price broke resistance which...
8) sets up a one more high situation that looks like 2896.5
9) on Wed I says that we could not entertain ...
10) a check down route unless we hit 2835 AND WE DID BUT LATE
11) so with this break of resistance ...
12) the 8 min bar chart shows two things worth saying
A) first response is continuation of yellow route with break of 2888
B) second response is a close under 2865 which means nothing
13) why?
14) because yellow route now obviously favored unless
15) WE CLOSE UNDER 2835
16) this is a big ask that is not realistic until Monday

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17) 1:26 PM 2863.xx after today's SECOND visit to 2853...
18) made new high but stop short of 2890
19) this double top now obvious and the pattern ...
20) now much more bearish than before
21) it's still hard to close under 2835
22) but a close under 2835 would seal the deal
23) realistic by Monday close has now become favored
24) by Monday close

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25) immediately followed by dropped to 2765
26) nothing more worth adding for mow

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** for now, typo

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27) except demand and schedule for 2710

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28) to hit 2710... price must be on time for the following targets similar to chart above

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29) 2810 on Monday
30) 2855 or less on Wednesday but preferably 2735
31) if 2735 gets hit by Thursday it doesn't matter if price rebound to 2790 or not
32) odds would favor one more low

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8:02 PM, today played out pretty much as expected....

32) so I have every reason to expect 2765 and less by Thursday NY close...
33) that's 100 down from 2860 close

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34) and we will go on from there

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35) typo on 30) 2755 or less... (not 2855 or less)

11 ก.พ.

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02/11, 1:01 PM ET, so break and hold of 2888 yesterday day means ...
1) yellow route is the only route that makes sense
2) what does that mean?
3) that means 2985 is the Feb target, this I wrote in previous post
4) but what it really means is THE MAY JUNE HIGH should be near 3333
5) and then comes the part that does'n't make sense going forward...

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a) first the correction after 3333 should be 360-420 pts
b) and when I say 3333, I really mean as high as 3350
c) so that correction would be down to 3000 or 2925 at the worst
d) and then the runaway wave after that implies 4850-5100
e) but I would exit at 3450 and re-assess the situation
f) why?
g) because the ALL TIME HIGH adjusted for inflation is 875 in January 1980
h) you can look it up what the value of that is right now
i) but I know that number for NEXT YEAR IS ABOUT 3400-3500

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j) I have refrained from making calls above 4100 for the final high for this very reason
k) for example, this for all the people calling 10k, 20k,, etc..
l) let's say Trump push through a industrialization package and the U.S. economy expands at 15% a year
m) for the next 5 years
n) that would mean gold moves to 6700 in 2030 maybe 7500 in 2031
o) but you can't make that call until Congress passes that plan
p) so to review:
6) I see 3333 in June
7) after a 360-420 pt correction, I see 3450 maybe 3500 in 12 months
8) and while the pattern calls for 4850-5100
9) there's nothing happening right now to make such a call

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10) in chart above, I really don't think we should move above 3300s without first checking...
11) at the 45-year trend line which will be at 2450 in July/August
12) and this route needs price to move drop hard to 2725-2740
13) and yest the short term trends say top again, but they have been doing that since 2845
14) so to me, there is nothing interesting in gold unless
15) we see 2450 again

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16) the only way to do that that is left is moving straight at or under 2740
17) which MAY (not will) cap the 2025-year ceiling under 3150
18) so we can see the 45-year line again before resetting for the next move

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19) but continuation of yellow route (last 44 hours) is BEGINNING TO KILL THIS MOVE:

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20) 6:39 PM ET, SO THIS IS THE VERY CORRECTION ROUTE POSSIBLE, NEXT POST: