$GLD Breakout and Option Strategy Spotlight with Overlay

19 ส.ค.

It looks like GLD 0.44%↑ finally broke out of its sideways-upward channel on Friday. Time to explore some opportunities using our Options Overlay indicator on TradingView.

The current IVR is at 84, while the 62 DTE average IVx is only 19.9, making this IVx level exceptionally high for gold over the past year. On the daily chart, the Gold ETF is trading between the 6/8 and 7/8 levels. The options chain shows that calls 62 DTE are about 130% more expensive, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market.

Examining the standard expected move (STD1), even at 4 DTE, the upside target is 237 (7/8), with the downside at 6/8. The delta curve shows the 16 delta OTM call trending upwards toward the 8/8 level, which aligns with the 250 level. Given this, I would caution against buying single-leg calls at such inflated prices. A pullback could dramatically reduce their value, and time decay will work against you. If you're determined to go bullish, a simple CALL butterfly offers a better risk-reward ratio!

GLD Bullish strategy - if we are expecting rising IV

Assuming further IV increases (IVx rose by 2% over the last 5 days despite a drop in VIX and a rise in the underlying), a CALL calendar spread presents a solid R:R setup.

The Options Overlay quickly highlights the optimal expiry dates to target: Sep 20-27. I noticed a 4% volatility skew between these dates. The standard expected move (STD1) and delta16 suggest an upward probability range capped at 245, meaning there's an 86% chance that GLD stays below this level by Sep 20.

Here's my setup in this case: GLD Sep 20th - Sep 27th 245 Calendar Call Spread.

This spread, spotted in under a minute on TradingView, offers nearly 8x risk-reward, but it's beneficial only if you're betting on continued IV increases.

19 ส.ค.

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่

Opened for 0.32db each