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Another 11% year for GOLD?
ที่อัปเดต:
This is mid-long term.
Intro
Conditions in stock markets need to unravel soon or at least by the end of this year. Pay attention to the situation in EU and Canada with related markets. Will gold drop below 1300 now or will it keep rising?
Things to keep an eye on:
What is that red scenario i'm depicting?
Bonds and gold dropping at first as stocks dropping and asset liquidation process develops. Also, COT report shows swap dealers, commercials and managed funds are lowering their long positions (in total).
Volume profile:
Those are, in my opinion, excellent prices for long term long positions.
Elliot wave analysis on chart, long and short terms.
Triple combo cycle, double combo in the middle. Now in a local tipple combo, both supercycle and local ending on Z and (z).
But what if stocks liquidations are worse than expected? Then expect even a 30% fall in gold prices as a possibility, so manage your risk accordingly.
Good luck, let's take a look back at this chart in one calendar year.
Cheers
Intro
Conditions in stock markets need to unravel soon or at least by the end of this year. Pay attention to the situation in EU and Canada with related markets. Will gold drop below 1300 now or will it keep rising?
Things to keep an eye on:
- Yield curve (and FED working on the short term rate).
- Inflation (rising since 2015).
- Commodities prices (breaking up).
- Dollar index, still under heavy pressure.
- Fund managers moving money from stocks to bonds, slowly as yields rises and offer a better return than stocks at current multiples (overvalued).
What is that red scenario i'm depicting?
Bonds and gold dropping at first as stocks dropping and asset liquidation process develops. Also, COT report shows swap dealers, commercials and managed funds are lowering their long positions (in total).
Volume profile:
- Check the huge volume VOID right at 1310-1290 area.
- Check the spike on volume right below at 127x area.
Those are, in my opinion, excellent prices for long term long positions.
Elliot wave analysis on chart, long and short terms.
Triple combo cycle, double combo in the middle. Now in a local tipple combo, both supercycle and local ending on Z and (z).
But what if stocks liquidations are worse than expected? Then expect even a 30% fall in gold prices as a possibility, so manage your risk accordingly.
Good luck, let's take a look back at this chart in one calendar year.
Cheers
บันทึก
Well, so far nothing strange.My only concern is past week's COT data showing swap dealers and MM dropping heavily on long positions. PA is showing that commercials are keeping these prices above 1300 by decreasing selling heavily.
So, next steps:
Check this week's COT data, re-analyze and make a decision.
If I see swap dealers and MM increasing positions, a breakout up in gold is highly probable.
I'll be updating here on any new trade I come up with.
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