GBP/USD at 1.23 by the weekend?

15 ต.ค. 2023

The GBP/USD pair initially attempted a recovery but later reversed, falling below 1.2100 on Friday due to escalating geopolitical tensions, favoring the US Dollar. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to 40, signaling a short-term bearish outlook. The crucial level at 1.2200 holds psychological and technical significance. If confirmed as support, GBP/USD could recover to 1.2250 and 1.2300. However, failure to maintain levels above 1.2200 could invite selling pressure, with support identified at 1.2170, 1.2130, and 1.2100. Despite a loss of over 100 pips on Thursday, GBP/USD rebounded on Friday and stabilized above 1.2200.

US Treasury bond yields surged on Thursday following the September inflation report, strengthening the US Dollar. Despite a slight decrease in annual Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation to 4.1%, specific report details revived expectations for a later Federal Reserve rate increase. 'Supercore inflation' increased by 0.6% monthly, highlighting persistent inflation components.

On Friday, the 10-year US T-bond yield corrected lower after a 3% surge on Thursday, making it challenging for the USD to extend recent gains. Meanwhile, US stock index futures registered a slight increase. If US yields continue to decrease in the latter part of the day, the USD may remain weak, allowing GBP/USD to rise before the weekend. Conversely, a cautious opening of Wall Street along with a recovery in US yields could exert downward pressure on the pair. The price is in a demand zone on the H4 chart and might attempt an upward movement with targets at 1.22/1.2250. It will be important to monitor a potential change in structure at M5/M15 during the London session tomorrow for a possible long entry. Let me know your thoughts, comment, and leave a like to support our work. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.