Next 24h, the key data regarding to Cable/Dollat are:
- UK CPI
- US Retail Sales
According to my calculation, I think the UK CPI would be negative, and US Retail Sales could be positive.
The divergence between UK CPI and US Retail Sale likely hit hard to GBPUSD and drive this pair lower.
On the other hand, if UK CPI is positive, and US Retail Sales is negative, the game changes : GBPUSD soars as a result.
Remerber that,if US Retal Sales is negative, most likely US CPI on Friday will follow the data: Negative, and this will destroy any hope for a meaningful rally of USDollar, and the rate hike expect is reduced significantly.
Hence, US Retail Sales tomorrow is very important.
However, to choose a move , I choose the downside for Cable.
- Technical Analysis
+ Last week, I talked about the trend line, and I waited for the breakout.
The breakout actually happened as I expect, but right after that Cable bounce back and retest the trend line.
Once, GBPUSD bounce from the intersection between two trend lines I draw on the chart.
GBPUSD still hold below the trend line.
The downside risk still remains.
I think the downside should continue.
The target I choose is 1.5330
- UK CPI
- US Retail Sales
According to my calculation, I think the UK CPI would be negative, and US Retail Sales could be positive.
The divergence between UK CPI and US Retail Sale likely hit hard to GBPUSD and drive this pair lower.
On the other hand, if UK CPI is positive, and US Retail Sales is negative, the game changes : GBPUSD soars as a result.
Remerber that,if US Retal Sales is negative, most likely US CPI on Friday will follow the data: Negative, and this will destroy any hope for a meaningful rally of USDollar, and the rate hike expect is reduced significantly.
Hence, US Retail Sales tomorrow is very important.
However, to choose a move , I choose the downside for Cable.
- Technical Analysis
+ Last week, I talked about the trend line, and I waited for the breakout.
The breakout actually happened as I expect, but right after that Cable bounce back and retest the trend line.
Once, GBPUSD bounce from the intersection between two trend lines I draw on the chart.
GBPUSD still hold below the trend line.
The downside risk still remains.
I think the downside should continue.
The target I choose is 1.5330
