20/8/25 Traders Will See If Bears Can Create FT Selling

1. Tuesday’s candlestick (Aug 19) was an outside bear bar closing in its lower half with a long tail above.
   
2. In our last report, we traders would see if the bulls could create more follow-through buying or if the market would stall and form bear bars instead.
   
3. The market traded higher, testing the February high, but reversed into an outside bear bar instead.
   
4. The bulls want another strong leg up that lasts for several weeks.
   
5. They want any pullback to be weak and sideways, lacking follow-through selling like all recent pullbacks.
   
6. If the market trades lower, they want the 20-day EMA to act as support.
   
7. The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Jun 20, Jul 24, and Aug 19), and a large double top bar flag with the February high.
   
8. At the least, they want a two-legged pullback.
   
9. They want the Feb high area to act as resistance. So far, the market is forming a pullback around this level.
   
10. They need to create strong follow-through selling to increase the odds of a reversal.
    
11. Production for August may be flat or down. Sept should be flat or down as well.
    
12. Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent.
    
13. Export: August export up 21% in the first 15 days.
    
14. So far, the buying pressure is stronger (consecutive bull bars) compared to the weaker selling pressure (bear bars with no follow-through selling).
    
15. The market is forming a pullback after testing the February high.
    
16. Traders are wondering if the current pullback would be minor (lacking follow-through selling) like all recent pullbacks, or if the bears would finally be able to create strong consecutive bear bars instead?
    
17. For tomorrow (Wednesday, Aug 20), traders will see if the bears can create strong follow-through selling.
    
18. Or if the pullback phase would be weak and mostly sideways (overlapping candlesticks, long tails below bars, bull bars)?
    

Andrew