29/5/25 Sideways to Down PB testing the 20-day EMA

1. Thursday’s candlestick (Aug 28) was a bear bar closing in its lower half with a prominent tail below.
   
2. In our last report, we stated that traders would observe whether the bulls could create a strong follow-through bull bar or if the market would trade lower, breaking below the August 21 low and testing the 20-day EMA instead.
   
3. The bulls were not able to create a follow-through bull bar, and the market traded lower to test the 20-day EMA.
   
4. They want the 20-day EMA and the bull trend line to act as support and the pullback to be weak and sideways, lacking follow-through selling, as has been the case with all recent pullbacks.
   
5. They want it to form a higher low followed by a reversal from a double bottom bull flag (Aug 21 low).
   
6. They need to create strong bull bars to show they are back in control.
   
7. The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (June 20, July 24, and August 19), and a large double top bar flag with the February high.
   
8. They need to create strong follow-through selling, trading below the 20-day EMA and the bear trend line to increase the odds of a sustained move.
   
9. Production for August may be flat or down. Sept should be flat or down as well.
   
10. Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent.
    
11. Export: August export up 10% in the first 25 days.
    
12. So far, the pullback phase is still holding above the 20-day EMA and is a higher low.
    
13. The sideways to down pullback phase is still underway.
    
14. Tomorrow's daily candlestick will determine the weekly candlestick. The bulls want a strong bull bar so that the weekly candlestick will close with a long tail below. The bears want a strong bear bar so that the weekly candlestick will close near its low, which increases the odds of the market trading at least a little lower next week.
    
15. For tomorrow (Friday, Aug 29), traders will see if the bears can create strong follow-through selling, closing below the 20-day EMA.
    
16. Or will the market find support at the 20-day EMA and close higher for the day instead?
    

Andrew