EUR/USD on the right path for a recovery?

6 ต.ค. 2023

EUR/USD reached the weekly high at 1.0600 and consolidated around 1.0580, marking a slight weekly increase. Despite positive data on U.S. non-farm payrolls for September, the U.S. dollar surprisingly weakened on Friday. The pair stabilized above the upper limit of the descending regression channel, with an RSI of 60 on the 4-hour chart, indicating a short-term bullish outlook. Immediate resistance is at 1.0570 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest downtrend), and a 4-hour close above this level could attract buyers, with subsequent targets at 1.0600 and 1.0640. However, a return of EUR/USD within the descending channel, with a 4-hour close below 1.0530, could lead to further losses towards 1.0500 and 1.0450. On Friday, the pair stabilized around 1.0550 after two consecutive days of gains. Anticipating the U.S. September jobs report, the dollar struggled on Thursday due to a correction in the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield. Later in the day, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the September jobs report, with forecasts of a 170,000 increase in Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). A reading below 150,000 could lead to dovish Fed bets and a decrease in U.S. yields. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 35% probability of another 25 basis points rate hike by the Fed by year-end. Market participants will closely monitor Wall Street's performance. If risk flows dominate the financial markets following a weak NFP and U.S. stocks rally into the weekend, it's likely that EUR/USD will close the week on a bullish note. The goal is to wait for the price in the demand zone and then evaluate a possible rise from 1.05 to 1.07. Let me know what you think. Good evening to all from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.