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Eurusd multiple analysis says we are going south

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OANDA:EURUSD   ยูโร / ดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ
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Trade Setup

First scenario


i) After this long uptrend now the market is clearly in the distribution process.
ii) The red lines indicate the distribution process on the chart. Notice that the last two tops are decreasing (yellow line). This confirms that the market might be distribution at this point.
iii) To complete the Wyckoff spring it can break the yellow line at point W ( 1.1965) or above previous resistance 1.20 point X.


Second scenario
iv) we have head and shoulder pattern at daily TF and break below the neckline and the restest of the neckline can give us a better short position.

Most importantly we have NEW COT reports which clearly shows big banks and institutions have closed their 32k long position from the last three weeks. 11k is last week, so next week we can see
downtrend, towards monthly 38% fib 1.13 ..

please comment if you have a better idea. Hit the thumbs up 👍 and support the work.
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