ETH: Sharp Flush, Filling the FVG or Preparing for a Deeper Drop

22 ก.ย.

Hello everyone,

On the H4 chart the recent red candle in ETH was a textbook flush: price plunged straight below the Ichimoku Cloud, selling volume spiked, and a large cluster of FVGs has formed overhead around 4.32k–4.40k. This setup typically favours a technical rebound to fill those gaps before the market chooses its next direction.

Why did ETH fall so sharply?

• First, mass liquidation of leveraged positions: this morning alone, hundreds of millions in long positions were wiped out, with ETH accounting for a significant share, intensifying the move lower.
  
• Second, deteriorating ETF flows: after a period of strong inflows, spot ETH ETFs saw heavy redemptions in early September (from ~$505M to ~$952M within days), adding supply as investors took profit or rotated into BTC.
  
• Third, risk-off sentiment ahead of the Fed and lingering regulatory uncertainty around ETH ETFs—particularly the delayed review of staking features—has curbed appetite. Finally, the wider crypto market saw broad-based selling, wiping out tens of billions in market cap and dragging ETH down with it.
  

From a technical view, I expect ETH to rebound toward 4.32k–4.36k (lower FVG edge, possibly extending to 4.38k–4.40k near the Cloud) to retest supply. If selling pressure re-emerges there, price is likely to reverse toward 4.08k–4.02k, retesting the recent absorption zone. Holding 4.02k could allow another attempt back at 4.32k; breaking and closing H4 below 4.02k, however, opens risk toward ~3.98k.

Only if ETH closes above 4.40k–4.43k on H4 (escaping the FVG and regaining the Cloud) would I consider a scenario of building a higher base.

What about you—do you lean towards “rebound to sell” or “base building for a reversal”?

23 ก.ย.

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