Why Am I putting everything into ETHUSD?
ETHUSD is positioned strongly to recover the fastest from the recent pullback; although it does appear there is room for some more downside risk still at play (~17% to the lower end of the MA supports). Price is currently ranging between $210 – 240; with a rising RSI – a traditional indicator that a continuation move may be setting up (commonly known as a bull trap).
The Weekly chart (lower right) demonstrates the sharp decline witnessed last week; though it needs to be maintained that anyone who bought in the last 6 months is probably still seeing positive returns. After rejecting off the 70.0 RSI; we saw the correlation to the overall market sentiment and a race into cash-based products (e.g. bonds).
On the daily chart (lower centre) we can see that open interest through Bitfinex is reducing – with short positions being almost non-existent. That shows a very strong bullish bias in the leverage markets. The reduction in positions also helps to ensure we don’t end up in a position where long margin calls result in a cascading effect (Hi Bitmex…). We can see that the 28D MA is acting as resistance above the price actions – however we seem to be stalled out at a lower bound of $210. Looking through the historical price action; there doesn’t appear to be much to support the idea of this being the base for a bounce in any meaningful way. On-Balance Volume (OBV) on both the weekly and daily has largely recovered from the pullback; suggesting that volume on the ‘green’ periods is enabling volume flow back into the market.
This brings us to the big question; are we going to bounce soon?
There is strong history of price action at $200 and $180; which are roughly in line with the current moving averages for 13 weeks, 26 weeks, and 52 weeks. With 3 key MAs all with 10% of each other; it is no wonder we saw so much volatility recently. As such, we believe that scaling in lightly at $210 and incrementally increasing through to $200 before accelerating through $180 is a reasonable approach to taking long term entry positions.
Expecting the 26W and 13W MAs to cross the 52W within 4 weeks; we should see a further influx of money as media picks up on the bullish sentiments (100/50 cross is also in action).
Moonshots and rockets make for cool names only…they are hardly a good trading strategy. However with 3 key MAs within 15% of the lower threshold of the price rage; some smart entries can create a portfolio position of less than 10% risk and 40%+ in upside potential.
Happy Trading!
The Weekly chart (lower right) demonstrates the sharp decline witnessed last week; though it needs to be maintained that anyone who bought in the last 6 months is probably still seeing positive returns. After rejecting off the 70.0 RSI; we saw the correlation to the overall market sentiment and a race into cash-based products (e.g. bonds).
On the daily chart (lower centre) we can see that open interest through Bitfinex is reducing – with short positions being almost non-existent. That shows a very strong bullish bias in the leverage markets. The reduction in positions also helps to ensure we don’t end up in a position where long margin calls result in a cascading effect (Hi Bitmex…). We can see that the 28D MA is acting as resistance above the price actions – however we seem to be stalled out at a lower bound of $210. Looking through the historical price action; there doesn’t appear to be much to support the idea of this being the base for a bounce in any meaningful way. On-Balance Volume (OBV) on both the weekly and daily has largely recovered from the pullback; suggesting that volume on the ‘green’ periods is enabling volume flow back into the market.
This brings us to the big question; are we going to bounce soon?
There is strong history of price action at $200 and $180; which are roughly in line with the current moving averages for 13 weeks, 26 weeks, and 52 weeks. With 3 key MAs all with 10% of each other; it is no wonder we saw so much volatility recently. As such, we believe that scaling in lightly at $210 and incrementally increasing through to $200 before accelerating through $180 is a reasonable approach to taking long term entry positions.
Expecting the 26W and 13W MAs to cross the 52W within 4 weeks; we should see a further influx of money as media picks up on the bullish sentiments (100/50 cross is also in action).
Moonshots and rockets make for cool names only…they are hardly a good trading strategy. However with 3 key MAs within 15% of the lower threshold of the price rage; some smart entries can create a portfolio position of less than 10% risk and 40%+ in upside potential.
Happy Trading!
ความคิดเห็น:
While other coins are starting to curl up (looking at you BTC...; ETH is still deciding it's future.
Are we going to see it push through?
Are we going to see it push through?
ความคิดเห็น:
As expected; we were unable to see a sustained breakout at the 0382 line; and have come down to almost touch the $200. We are now also seeing a reasonably large bullish divergence on the RSI...
การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่:
Time to test the theory. The first key test is that of the 52W MA.
Risk from here is around 10% on the downside, so work within your own perspective portfolio risks.
Risk from here is around 10% on the downside, so work within your own perspective portfolio risks.
ปิดการเทรด: ถึงเป้าหมายการตัดขาดทุน:
Safe to say that it's hard to be bullish right now. There is a lot of hysteria in the markets. Be safe, and be sure of your movements.
Happy Trading!
Happy Trading!
This also presents a rational answer to the question of why the price stalled out at $220; which is reflective of the 0382 fib line.
Is the market bullish enough to bounce at 0382? We don't believe so!