ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups for Tue (Oct 28th)

ES Context:

The trend is upward on the higher time frame, approaching a "weak-high" area just above the previous day's high (PDH). With FOMC Day-1 and consumer confidence news approaching, I expect the Asia and London sessions to trade within a range around or below the PDH, with a risk of a sweep and retest before any potential extension. The bias is slightly bullish as long as we remain above yesterday’s value area. The invalidation point is a 15-minute close below the previous day's low (PDL).

Setup 1 — Long above R1 (acceptance continuation)
Trigger: 15m full-body close ≥ 6912, then 5m pullback holds/re-closes above 6912.
Entry: 6913–6915
Stop: 6905
TP1: 6924–6930
TP2: 6965–6975
Cancel: if retest fails to hold above 6912.

Setup 2 — Short at R1 (rejection fade)
Trigger: Probe ≥ 6912 fails; 15m closes back below 6909; 5m LH re-close.
Entry: 6907–6910
Stop: 6917
TP1: 6900–6896
TP2: 6883–6880
Runner: 6878 → 6867.50 if momentum continues.

Setup 3 — Long from GMid (partial gap-fill reclaim)
Trigger: Wick into 6852–6855, then 5m reclaim ≥ 6856.
Entry: 6856–6858
Stop: 6848
TP1: 6867.50 (GTop)
TP2: 6900–6906

Setup 4 — Long from GBot (full gap-fill reversal)
Trigger: Fast tag of 6841–6842, then 5m reclaim ≥ 6846.
Entry: 6846–6848 on retest hold
Stop: 6836
TP1: 6854.25 (GMid)
TP2: 6867.50 (GTop)
Cancel: 15m body closes back below 6841.

Execution rules
Trade inside kill-zones only (London 02:00–05:00 ET; NY AM 09:30–11:00; NY PM 13:30–16:00).
Take a setup only if TP1 ≥ 2.0R versus the stated stop.
At TP1 close 70% and set 30% runner to BE; no trailing before TP2.

Catalysts for Tue, Oct 28 (all times ET; all listed items expected to proceed despite the shutdown)
09:00 — S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (private release).
10:00 — Conference Board Consumer Confidence (private release).
All day — FOMC Meeting (Day-1) begins; Day-2 statement/PC tomorrow.
13:00 — U.S. Treasury auctions (notes/bills as scheduled).
FYI tomorrow (Wed): 10:30 — EIA Weekly Petroleum Status (on schedule).