ES/SPY Weekend look with levels

The ES tested the red zone and is coming into the 4500 level that I have mentioned many times in the past. Price touched the long term 1.618 extension and pulled back sharply Aug 17/18. This Sunday night futures are up and price is retesting the recent high. I will treat this red zone as significant resistance until it is not. One thesis I am considering is a move out of the reflation trade back into tech/growth names give the resurgence of Covid and the Delta Variant going back into the fall. Any new lock downs will hit oil hard and put a damper on inflation which would weaken the ES and strengthen the NAS. This is all speculation of course and will need to be confirmed with a rejection at the ATH and a lower low. The Jackson Hole event may provide the catalyst for price to do this. Often the charts and price action lead the news and we should get some clues as to where price wants to go in the come week.

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Today could be the day for 4500.

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Topped out at 4492. I'm cautious now. We have had run ups leading to many of the past Fed meetings only to sell off just before or after the meeting. Of course if price blasts though the red zone then I will reassess.

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Seeing some selling pressure going into tomorrow's fed meeting after tapping 4498. Not attempting to short.. just de-risking. A big drop usually takes some time to form.