ES/SPY Weekly Level & Trade Prep. (Apr10-14)

Last week price consolidated as market participants waited on new information and were unwilling to commit to a direction going into the long weekend. I would expect more volatility this week as more data will be released and earnings season kicks off on Friday.

SUMMARY
• ES posted a .21% loss last week after trading in a range of 72 points.
• Price remained above the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma.
• ES still below the Dec 13th high and the downward trendline
• ES is trading within a giant symmetrical triangle
• Sectors rotated again last week with money shifting back into XLV, XLE & XLU from XLK & XLY
• Market is in a wait and see mode after a low volatility week
• Potential catalysts this week are the FOMC Minutes and CPI data
• Earnings season kicks off on Friday with banks
• Market expecting Fed rate pause but watching for signs of a recession
• Key support and resistance zones similar to last week.
• Now in a historically bullish period for stocks

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday Wholesale inventories & Fed heads speak
Tuesday 3 Fed Heads speak & BOC Rate statement
Wednesday US CPI, FOMC Minutes & BOC Rate Decision + EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US PPI, US Initial Jobless Claims
Friday US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production & University of Mich. Sentiment

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday Nothing
Tuesday KMX
Wednesday INFY, SJR
Thursday DAL, FAST, PGR
Friday JPM, C, UNH, WFC

BULLISH NOTES

ES held above 9 & 21 emas
Consolidating at recent high
Price above 9/21/55 ema and 200 SMA
50 SMA is above the 200 SMA
Now within Longer term Fib neutral zone.
Dropping yields and USD
Potential positive reaction to CPI & FOMC Minutes
Historically bullish period for stocks
Earnings season starts Friday with banks

BEARISH NOTES

Opening week below downward trendline & Dec 13th high
Potential negative reaction to Fed Head talk
Potential for deeper p/b to 21 ema and/or 200 SMA
Potential negative reaction to CPI & FOMC Minutes
Potential rise in OIL prices
Momentum concentrated in a small amount of stocks
Yields and the USD close to support and may reverse trend

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Re-post of chart from last week showing why I think the Dec 13th high is a key level to watch.

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Here is the huge symmetrical triangle pattern that has formed on the SPX. Neutral pattern right now for me. Just worth noting that price is trading into a tighter range pointing to a potentially explosive move one way or the other.

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Chopped to start the week then tapped the downward TL and rejected after the CPI data yesterday. $ES_F now bouncing off the 9 ema after lower PPI data this morning. A hold at the 9 and push through the downward TL would be bullish. 1st upside target would be the Dec 13th high. Above that a move to 4300 is possible.