ที่อัปเดต:

CPI and Jobless Data to Dominate the Market Today

Here I thought I'd have a short video, but alas, it was not, haha. Anyways, enjoy the video to see where trends are, what likely drove us down yesterday, and some conversation on how this CPI print could cause a huge price movement, or won't even matter in the end.

If you just want the trends, here they are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3789 Downtrend (11/08/2022) Higher Low
1Hr - 3800 Downtrend (11/09/2022) Lower Low
2Hr - 3762 Downtrend (11/09/2022) Lower Low
3Hr - 3755 Downtrend (11/09/2022) Lower Low
4Hr - 3755 Downtrend (11/09/2022) Lower Low
6Hr - 3760 Downtrend (10/17/2022) Higher Low
12Hr - 3726 Downtrend (11/04/2022) Higher Low
Daily - 3923 Up (10/28/2022) Lower High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low

While the trends are interesting and actually show we could go up in our next movement, at least briefly, before continuing back down the forming downtrend we have going on, the reality is that the Economic Data of today will likely send this market spiraling somewhere and crush the trends that are forming.

All eyes are on the CPI Data and Jobless Claims, due out at 08:30am EST.

If headline CPI comes in low or sub 7%, prepare for a market surge. If it comes in high 8% or above, brace for a likely plummet. Additionally, if Core CPI comes at or just below around 1%, we are going to tumble... if it comes in closer to .2 or .3%, I expect a rally. If it comes in as expected, I expect a lot of shaking, and then a move upward towards 3800.

Jobless claims I am not sure will show much. While we've had some recent layoff news, I don't think it will make this report.

My bias for today is;
Shorter Term - Wherever CPI takes us
Short Term - Wherever CPI takes us
Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish
Long Term - Bearish

Safe Trading, and remember your risk management plan

บันทึก

Jeez... moved so quick I only was able to make about $1200 off that spike.

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So, I was pretty spot on with the move off the CPI. We are just above 3% for the day already. I could see another 30 points move higher, but I might let things settle for a second here.

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So, every trend from the 30m to the 6hr is currently in an uptrend. Gives higher highs across the spectrum because of how massive the upward push was. I think I may just take the rest of the day off, because... I could see another 30 point move higher, but ultimately I'd like to see how this settles once the emotional trading is over.

Definitely just moved right along in line with trends though. So the question will be as we approach the daily lower high line, do we push up past that or not? I might go see what the average it takes a weekly to get a movement, because we are oversold on a weekly uptrend, and have been for about 8 months now... eventually that weekly needs to have a signal to the upside, even if it is a lower high (not sure it would be though)

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So with that level holding, we are basically going to have a trend traffic jam here. The 30m, 1hr, 2hr, and 4hr all stuck at 3878. The 3hr actually finishes the bar at 10am... but otherwise, every funnel of those trends looks to have a top funnel. The 6hr doesn't settle until 1pm EST, so maybe we can get some better guidance by then. I'll be interested to see how much of this boost sticks through the open.

Again, this may be a watch and analyze kinda day in the long run.

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So I did an Apex Triangle Theory analysis, and if it holds true, this movement would take us to around 3910-3920 before we had our first real backwards movement.

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Mmm... redid the math on the Triangular Apex model, and 3910-3940 is more likely the zone we are headed to. First possible pullback around 3910, but more likely we flatten around 3940

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Bit early to determine this is the peak of this surge, but it did just bounce right off the lower high Daily downtrend line we have.

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I don't feel like trading against the rally, but this likely is a pull back point here going into the day.

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If we get a 12hr uptrend signal, I am going short

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There was a 7% drop in Long sentiment on DailyFX over the past couple minutes. I think it might be slightly premature, but I agree with the loss of belief if the continuation of this rally.

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I actually went long here at 3897. Just look to see if we can get back up to the top of this push again... or to the 12hr uptrend if it hits... or 3940

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Eh, cashed out at 3917. Easy $1000

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Short 3931.75

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Profit stopped at 3930.50... lunch money. No big deal. I kind of expect 3940, as I said. So... that might be my next shot there. Always prefer caution when trying to run against a very strong move.

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Well that sucks... I put in to go short at 3935.75, but when it spiked up, I didn't get it filled =\

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Long 3910.5

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Profit stopped at 3911.5. Bleh

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Long 3907... Come on, let's see 3940 here

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Knocked out for profit at 3908...............................................

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Long 3906

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This is definitely getting old... lol... Profit stopped at 3907.... might take a break.

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The 6hr uptrend has officially stuck at 3906

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So, just FYI, the reason I'm so interested in a 12hr uptrend as a short... is because there would be zero trend lines above that spot. The lower low Daily is at 3915, the lower high Daily is at 3895, the 30m, 1h, 2h, 3h, 4h are all down around 3880, the 6hr just hit at 3906... so if we push upward once more to a 12hr uptrend, without an actual dip, than there is zero trend to give guidance upward, therefore... in trading with trends, even if we go higher, we have to then swing lower to get at LEAST a 30m trend, or heck, even a 15m trend. That movement alone will be a good $2000 move unless it comes out extremely flat and sideways over the next couple days. Still a safe trade either way.

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Be really interesting on how this day ends and what tomorrow brings. It is actually a bit of low volume for such a massive upswing. Only 1.7 million so far with just over an hour left in the trading day

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So, to update on this 12 hour... while it has switched from a strong downtrend to a neutral, it has not yet actually signaled an uptrend. No idea what it is waiting for........... and usually when a trend changes like that it gives a signal.
Patience is key for sure.

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Well, I really wanted to see a 12hr uptrend signal... but utlimately I am short... 3943, which is the next stage of volume on the 12hr chart at least. I may allow this one to go a bit negative and not set a profit stop...

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Clearly I should have waited a bit longer... but oh well, not overly concerned. Surprised none of this is kicking back towards the close yet.

Anyways, I looked it up, this is the third biggest one day rally in S&P history) almost the second).

the two bigger ones are 3/13/2020 and 3/24/2020. The one after that is half this much of a one day push up (number wise, not percentage).
The one on the 13th (largest) the following day lost everything it had just rallied. The one on the 24th, was a whipsaw day that saw things go down 50, up 100, and ultimately only end up 20 points higher on the day.

Just food for thought. I don't remember how I traded those days specifically back then, and I certainly was not as keen on trends at that point in my trading career.

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lol, jeeeeeez.... went up 20 more points already. I seriously can't believe there isn't a small sell off at the end of this. I mean, the CPI data was promising, but I don't know if it is 5.5% promise worthy lol

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And there it is... the 12hr uptrend signal finally showed up at this 3960+ level. Clearly I should have waited for it, but ultimately... in terms of trends... we have to go down to pick up something since we will have nothing guiding us higher.

SemperTrader

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