ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Zones, Setups for Thur (Oct 30th)

Bias: Neutral → mild-bullish while 6,922 holds; momentum unlocks only on acceptance above the 6,966–6,972 pocket.

Setups — Rejection Fade (short): Tag 6,966–6,972 and print a 15m rejection close back inside, then a 5m re-close lower with a lower high, then take the 1m first-pullback fail. Stop = 15m wick high +0.25–0.50. TP1 = 6,940. TP2 = 6,922. Runner aims 6,885.

Setups — Acceptance Continuation (long): 15m full-body close above 6,972, 5m pullback holds and re-closes, then 1m higher-low entry. Stop = 6,966 wick. TP1 = 7,000. TP2 = 7,017. Stretch into low 7,040s if momentum persists.

Setups— Quick-Reclaim Bounce (long): Flush into 6,922–6,926 that instantly reclaims on 15m, 5m re-close confirms, then 1m higher-low entry. Stop = 6,916. TP1 = 6,940. TP2 = 6,966–6,972.

Setups — Breakdown Continuation (short): 15m body through 6,922 that holds below on a 5m retest. Stop = 6,929–6,932. TP1 = 6,900. TP2 = 6,885. Stretch 6,858 if pressure accelerates.

Management: only take a setup if TP1 is at least 2.0R using the 15m-wick stop. At TP1, close 70% and set the 30% runner to break-even; runner targets the next opposing major level. No trailing before TP2. Maximum two attempts per level per session.

Invalidation: Bull idea is invalid below 6,916 (loss of the AS shelf). Bear idea is invalid once there is 15m acceptance and hold above 6,972 with 5m higher-low structure.

Notes: Expect headline sensitivity. If we rip into 6,966–6,972 without a 15m close above, favor the fade. If we grind above and hold, ride acceptance toward 7,000 then 7,017.