ES/SPY Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (Aug28-Sep1)

28 ส.ค. 2023

SUMMARY

• ES finished the week with a gain of 0.76 % after trading in a range of 118 pts.
  
• ES fell below the Aug 16th High
  
• ES is now trading below the 9/21/55 emas
  
• First support is now the 236 Fib RT
  
• Price is still above th 618 Fib and the Feb 2nd high
  
• Sectors finished mixed with XLK & XLY leading and XLE pulling back. However XLE still showing near term relative strength.
  
• Catalyst for continued sell off is rising bond yields.
  
• Still in a seasonally weak period of the year.
  
• Long term bias remains bullish but deeper pull back to the lower trendline is now posible.
  
• Watching 10 yields as they test the 2008 high at 4.27.
  
• Earning seasons finishes up with reports from CRM, CRWN, LULU and NIO.
  
• Non Farm Payrolls due out this week on Friday
  
• New month starts Friday
  

ECONOMIC EVENTS

• MON Fed's Barr speaks
  
• TUES US CB Consumer Confidence, US JOLTS Job Openings & Fed's Barr speaks
  
• WED US ADP Employment Change, US GDP & EIA Crude Oil Inventories
  
• THUR US PCE, US Jobless Claims & Fed's Collins speaks
  
• FRI US Employment Rate, Non Farm Payrolls, CAD GDP, US S&P Manufacturing & Fed's Mester speaks
  

EARNINGS

• MON Nothing notable
  
• TUES BBY, BMO, BNS, BOX, HPE, NIO, SJM
  
• WED CRM, CRWD, OKTA, PSTG, VEEV
  
• THUR CIEN, CM, CPB, DG, ESTG, LULU
  
• FRI Nothing notable
  

BULLISH NOTES

• ES starts the week above 236 Fib / 100 SMA support
  
• Potential bounce off Feb 2nd high and lower trendline
  
• ES remains in the long term bull zone. Above high time frame 618 Fib RT.
  
• Longer term uptrend remains in place if price does not pull back below the 50% Fib RT
  
• Potential postive reaction to NFP
  
• Potential drop in bond yields
  

BEARISH NOTES

• Price rejected at HTF 786 Fib resistance
  
• ES now below the Aug 16th high
  
• ES dropped below the 9, 21 & 55 emas.
  
• Potential negative reaction to NFP
  
• Retest of Feb 2nd high is likely
  
• Deeper pull back to lower trendline is possible
  
• A move below the Feb 2nd high would drop price out of the longer term bull zone.
  
• Seasonally weak period for stocks.
  
• Potential yield move back above 4.27%.
  
• VIX rising
  

29 ส.ค. 2023

บันทึก

ES_F trading in similar fashion to the NQ_F. Started the week consolidated between the 55/21 emas. Price has now broken above the 21 ema and the Aug 16 high which is bullish. First upside target is last Thursday's high. A break above Thursday's high would negate the H&S pattern everyone is watching and could lead to push back to the 4600 level.

29 ส.ค. 2023

บันทึก

Here's a look at the H&D on the daily. So bullish above last Thursday's high, but bearish if price rejects. A rejection could take price back down to the neckline of the pattern and lead to a deep pullback. Above Thursday's high a move back to 4600 is possible.

31 ส.ค. 2023

บันทึก

ES_F pushed through last Thursday's high easily and is now above 4500. I will remain bullish above 4500. Close today will be key as it is the last day of Aug going into the long weekend. A reversal below the 4500 again would signal a potential move back to the 21 ema.