ES/SPY Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (Aug7-11)

SUMMARY

• ES finished the week with a loss of 2.37 % after trading in a range of 122 pts.
  
• ES fell below the HTF 786 Fib RT
  
• First support is now the Aug 16th High / 55 ema
  
• All sectors closed red last week except XLE which closed 1.25% higher. Weakest sectors were XLK & XLU.
  
• Catalyst for Thursday sell off was the Fitch downgrade of US debt rating.
  
• Now in a seasonally weak period of the year.
  
• Long term bias remains bullish but deeper pull back to the 618 Fib retracement is possible
  
• Watching 10 yields as they pushed above 4.19% last Thursday
  
• Earning season continues with reports from CELH, BABA, UPS, LCID, PLTR & RIVN
  
• Key econ data this week includes US S&P CPI on Thursday & US PPI on Friday
  

ECONOMIC EVENTS

• MON Fed's Bostic & Bowman Speak
  
• TUES CAD Trade Balance, US Trade Balance, US wholesale inventories & Fed's Barkin speaks
  
• WED EIA Crude Inventories
  
• THUR US CPI, OPEC Monthly Report & US Initial Jobless Claims + Fed's Bostic & Harker speak
  
• FRI US PPI & University of Mich. Sentiment
  

EARNINGS

• MON ATVI, KKR, LCID, PLTR, RNG, SWKS, TSN
  
• TUES CELH, DDOG, DOCS, GLBE, GOLD, LLY, QGEN, QSR, RIVN, TTWO, TWLO, UA, UPS, UPST, ZTS
  
• WED BAM, DIS, ILMN, MFC, PLUG, RBLX, TTD, WEN, WYNN
  
• THUR AQN, BABA, WPM, YETI
  
• FRI Nothing Notable
  

BULLISH NOTES

• ES above the Aug 16th high
  
• EMAs remain stacked.
  
• Price is now only 8.84% from ATH
  
• Potential positive reaction to CPI/PPI data.
  
• Potential rotation into small caps
  
• Buy the dip is back in favour.
  
• Market breath has improved.
  
• Potential bounce from the Aug 16th high
  
• ES is firmly in the long term bull zone. Above high time frame 618 Fib RT.
  
• Stoch 5,1 is Oversold
  

BEARISH NOTES

• Price rejected at HTF 786 Fib resistance
  
• Lower time frame double top confirmed
  
• ES dropped below the 9 & 21 emas.
  
• Potential negative reaction CPI/PPI data.
  
• Retest of Aug 16th high is likely
  
• Deeper pull back to lower trendline is possible
  
• Price is stretched for the weekly emas and 200 sma
  
• Seasonally weak period for stocks.
  
• Potential yield move back above 4.20%.
  
• VIX rising