BTC Tactical rebound or flush? Decision point at $103700 support

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Technical Overview – Summary Points
➤ Strong overall momentum across all swing/weekly timeframes, clear advantage to buyers.
➤ Key support at 103,700–104,000 USDT (chart/on-chain confluence, maximum visibility on all timeframes).
➤ Major technical resistance zone at 111,000–112,000 USDT (ATH + HTF pivots).
➤ Volumes normal to moderate, no directional climax or emotional excess in short and mid-term.
➤ Risk On / Risk Off Indicator remains strongly positive, indicating persistent sector outperformance.
➤ Only short-term weakness detected: temporary bearish trend on 2H/1H/30min/15min, typical of a short-term flush within a bullish structural context.

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Strategic Summary
➤ Main bias: Bullish for swing approaches as long as $103,700 holds on closing.
➤ Opportunity: Buy on support on any retest 103,700–104,000 USDT with stop <102,000 USDT.
➤ Partial target: Take profits at 105–106k, then 111–112k.
➤ Risk zones: Confirmed break below 103,700 USDT with high volume = potential flush to 97–98k or even 95–96k.
➤ Catalysts: Quiet macro calendar until NFP (06/06) & FOMC (mid-June) — increased monitoring as these events approach.
➤ Action plan: Tactical intervention on support pullback, reduce exposure before major events.

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Multi-Timeframe Analysis

1. 1D/1W : Major structure fully bullish. No underlying reversal, stable volume, solid momentum. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator fully “On Risk”, no behavioral excess.
   
2. 12H/6H: Sector momentum and volumes validate all swing-long entries on dips. Key supports 103,700–104,000 USDT consistently defended across timeframes.
   
3. 4H/2H: Bullish bias maintained, healthy structure. Slight intraday weakness: 2H softens, moderately high volumes without extremes.
   
4. 1H/30m/15m: Short-term bearish bias across all LTF — profit taking impact, typical technical flush on support. Bearish signals do NOT invalidate HTF bullish trend, but require tactical vigilance.
   
5. Risk Summary: A fast drop below 103,700 USDT with volume would validate a flash liquidation scenario to 97–98k. Pullback in mature bull phase, strongly defended at the key support: timing for “mean reversion” on volume reaction, else wait for lower setups.
   

• Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Still “On Risk”, strong tech/growth sector momentum on daily/swing.
  
• ISPD: No behavioral excess, neutral/median histogram across timeframes.
  
• Volumes: Normal/moderate, no exhaustion spike nor major selling.
  
• On-chain: Mature distribution, LTH profit-taking; key supports at $103,700, $97,100, $95,600.
  

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Strategic Synthesis & Bias

• Market in mature bullish consolidation, HTF structure robust as long as 103,700 USDT holds.
  
• Active opportunity window until NFP & FOMC: prioritize swing/mean-revert setups.
  
• Required stop for any trade: strictly below $102,000.
  
• Smart monitoring of volumes & sentiment: confirmed support break + volume = wait for lower rebound.
  
• No excessive panic or exuberance signals: strong RR if re-entering the main range.
  
• Actively manage exposure approaching macro events.
  

Operational summary:
• Buy at 103,700–104,000 USDT, stop <102,000.
• Partial profits at 105–106k, final offload at 111–112k.
• Reduce exposure ahead of NFP/FOMC.
• If break of 103,700 USDT: stop and wait for $97–98k or $95–96k.

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