Analysis of bitcoin price pattern and target

17 ส.ค. 2022

The rising wedge on BTC is hard to ignore, therefore may appear as too easy of a play. That is suspect, but we must not overthink things.

When we were ranging in June - July, I expected to at one point hit lower 17k zone.
I didn't expect the rally, but am still of the opinion it is / was a bear market rally and not a turn-around of a bigger trend. So that 17k level remains - for me - on the charts.
In that context, the rising wedge becomes interesting.

If wedge plays out and drop is +/- equal to the 10 - 15 June drop, it'd take us to the levels I drew out in June, which is lower-end of 17k.

Breakdown out of this wedge happened today and now we're hovering above the 4H 200EMA.

I think we'll find some support there & maybe go up to find the bottom line of the wedge flipped to resistance.
This activity could push us back to the 4H 200EMA EMA.
Once we lose it for support, further breakdown is more likely, with targets set at a new low.