ðĨ Bitcoin Halving Next Week! Sell The News Alarm ðĻ
Preface: I'm still bullish on Bitcoin. Long-term trend still is dominantly bullish. With this analysis I merely want to discuss a potential downwards move after the halving.
With the BTC halving approaching fast (time flies!), I'm becoming concerned that the market will actually treat the halving as a sell-the-news-event, rather than a buying one. The simple reason is that we've been moving up in a straight line from 25k to 70k without any meaningful dip in between.
In recent history, major Bitcoin news events (Coinbase IPO, Bitcoin spot ETF launch) have been sell-the-news-events. So why would the Halving be bullish?
By now, everyone is aware of the supply shock that follows the halving. Smart money bought in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 in anticipation of this halving. Dumb money has waited until recently to buy in, leaving them open to a correction.
Furthermore, the weekly RSI remains extremely overbought with a value well above 80 points. It has to come down eventually one would think.
I remain long-term bullish. Even the short-term looks relatively good. However, we can't underestimate the markets ability to catch us off guard. Be wary over the next two weeks.
In case of a correction, I'm looking at the yellow area for a potential re-entry.
With the BTC halving approaching fast (time flies!), I'm becoming concerned that the market will actually treat the halving as a sell-the-news-event, rather than a buying one. The simple reason is that we've been moving up in a straight line from 25k to 70k without any meaningful dip in between.
In recent history, major Bitcoin news events (Coinbase IPO, Bitcoin spot ETF launch) have been sell-the-news-events. So why would the Halving be bullish?
By now, everyone is aware of the supply shock that follows the halving. Smart money bought in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 in anticipation of this halving. Dumb money has waited until recently to buy in, leaving them open to a correction.
Furthermore, the weekly RSI remains extremely overbought with a value well above 80 points. It has to come down eventually one would think.
I remain long-term bullish. Even the short-term looks relatively good. However, we can't underestimate the markets ability to catch us off guard. Be wary over the next two weeks.
In case of a correction, I'm looking at the yellow area for a potential re-entry.
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