Let's do the point !
When you look this chart, you know I will say many things, that right ! And there is many thing to say ! So let's start by a quick recap of the statement made yesterday. We have a short daily signal which, in the Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern bring us to the support. In the idea about the signal I exposed multiples reasons pros and cons this signal. In term of price action I was expected a pullback on imbalance first then a retest of resistance before to see the imbalance fully filled.
Now let's take a look of what happened and to see this you have to go on hourly timeframe. This was a SO F******* INTERESANT DAY, the type of day you like to trade on. It's simply, technically, a masterclass. I will explain you first multiples things.
I speak many times about volumes, essential, it's simply what make moove your market. You can use all indicators you want, no one make move the market, volumes does. But to understand how it impact your market you have to understand that it's not only vertical, not only an amount of exchange between buyers and sellers in a candle. It's also an amount of exchange between buyers and sellers ON A PRICE, and this ones are represented horizontally and named as volumes profiles (blue on graph). They are way more important in the evolution of your market, way more usefull but also way more difficult to handle. That why I will explain brievly some basics but I invit you to ask questions or search by your own other content to learn about. So I spoke of imbalance many times now, already said that they are "a hole/gap" in volume profile. And what make them interesting for that it's because a resistance/support is simply the limit between a interesting area and an untraded area. So you can easily figure that they are places between a large amount of volume and another where you don't have volume ... exactly like imbalances. So imbalances, anomalies of market, act like resistance/support.
Multiples exploitation pattern from them (here on graph when price come from the top) :
Another pattern before to speak of today's session, the range pattern exploitation. I just want to remind that a range is horizontal, a channel is oblique. This is two things totally different, in structure, in exploitation, in market dynamic, in all way ! So your range (that you can find on left on chart) is an exchange between a level of supply (resistance area) and a level of demand (support area), so in is globality he is an area of volumes. These volumes to be exploited are read on the volume profile. Important level of your volume profile : the Point Of Control (POC) which is simply the price where the most volumes have been traded. Most of the time POC is in the middle of your range. There is other multiples interesting data to read with volumes profiles that I will not develop here but I invit you to read about it by your own on the platform or on google. I will only simply say that every step of price in your volume profile symbolize a state of your range. And as trading is mathematics you can easily find the correlation between your volume profile of your range and a normal law of distribution. In term of exploitation, when your price leave your range by a side or another you will see that a common pattern is to see it reach the expansion of 1:1 of the range, pullback the range on the POC (it can be simply on the resistance / support if pressure and supply / demand is too high) before to expand to the 2:1 / 3:1 expansion of your range (most relevant levels represented with dashed lime line here). And because Wyckoff is a psycological pattern of range, now you know why I target 1:1 expansion of range as first target out of the range.
"Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions"
Can we speak of today now ? Yes let's go !
So I was targeting a bounce on imbalance before to see a retest of the resistance. No signal, no volumes, no buyers, simply a little lateralization because of profit-taking caused by, no hazard, the 1:1 expansion of the range (where I took half of my gains yesterday). So next step is the full filling of the imbalance with volumes or a bounce on the bottom line. Neither one or the other, because we do a breakout, so we don't full filled it but leave again an imbalance, smaller this one (always purple rectangle). Next step ? We leave a range, so after 1:1 extension it's 2:1 extensions to target. And here we found a bounce, no signal, no volume always, which invite to see a consolidation. And what is really funny here, it's also the POC of the last range and like I said it's the most relevant level of pullback of a range (how market is well structured == market equilibrium). As every consolidation you find most of the time an end of it on the next resistance / support, and here it's our imbalance again. It did the job, there was a short daytrade here which give target on the big pin, complexe pattern that I never developped here but if you zoom on you can see the reaction on our imbalance and that show you what I explain in these pattern exploitation. I will be honest, what happen next was hard to anticipate, actually you see a consolidation movement (so expecting a lower low next) which reject back the resistance of the lower range and transform this consolidation bottom in a bull movement bottom. That another pattern that I never explain too, way more complexe than the initial too. In brief, you make a low with volumes (that why the initial pattern search for buying/selling volumes), when you don't you simply consolidate before to find volumes lower/upper (If you take the first LDTP idea that what making me say we didn't had the bottom of market for BTC, and I said true). Here you break your cycle and your market dynamics with an unfilled bottom, and this is an anomaly of market which annouce strong movement. And we got it, massive volumes, massive move, but irrelevant for the moment because it take place in an no interest area like show this image (the break of cycle on the bottom is more relevant than these volumes).
In term of expectation, it take a stop for the moment on the support of the lowest bottom of the top range like show the blue rectangle. But I will be honest we didn't retest the resistance for the moment, there isn't volume, so that only a consolidation before an higher movement (It confirmed during I was writting it).
Like yesterday we wait for the retest of the resistance, important levels are the grey areas (resistance/support area of the range), the yellow area (higher resistance) and the strongest the POC of the range. Here we will gauge the strenght of buyers AND the strenght of sellers. Because what is important to understand is that we are in a big confrontation here. Now buyers have the bullet we will see if sellers are stronger to hold them. I end shortly cause it's moving now ! Look your chart and enjoy cause in any way we go it's will be brutal. I think we are not far to see a + or - 10% on this market.
Like, follow or comment* if you like, I need it to continue !
*Speaking of comments, come ask questions, come share your point of view, come debate, I need to feel that my without counterpart work is usefull for some !
When you look this chart, you know I will say many things, that right ! And there is many thing to say ! So let's start by a quick recap of the statement made yesterday. We have a short daily signal which, in the Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern bring us to the support. In the idea about the signal I exposed multiples reasons pros and cons this signal. In term of price action I was expected a pullback on imbalance first then a retest of resistance before to see the imbalance fully filled.
Now let's take a look of what happened and to see this you have to go on hourly timeframe. This was a SO F******* INTERESANT DAY, the type of day you like to trade on. It's simply, technically, a masterclass. I will explain you first multiples things.
I speak many times about volumes, essential, it's simply what make moove your market. You can use all indicators you want, no one make move the market, volumes does. But to understand how it impact your market you have to understand that it's not only vertical, not only an amount of exchange between buyers and sellers in a candle. It's also an amount of exchange between buyers and sellers ON A PRICE, and this ones are represented horizontally and named as volumes profiles (blue on graph). They are way more important in the evolution of your market, way more usefull but also way more difficult to handle. That why I will explain brievly some basics but I invit you to ask questions or search by your own other content to learn about. So I spoke of imbalance many times now, already said that they are "a hole/gap" in volume profile. And what make them interesting for that it's because a resistance/support is simply the limit between a interesting area and an untraded area. So you can easily figure that they are places between a large amount of volume and another where you don't have volume ... exactly like imbalances. So imbalances, anomalies of market, act like resistance/support.
Multiples exploitation pattern from them (here on graph when price come from the top) :
- A : On the first passage, price will mostly bounce and react on it, like a simple pullback. Wait signal like if your top line of imbalance was a support line. The probability of success is really good on the first bounce, even if market can do this A pattern multiple times before to close the imbalance. (Always on the first passage, if price doesn't react on the top line you can find the same pattern but for the bottom. It way more complex to handle, in part because of the B pattern.)
- B : Second passage (mostly), imbalance get fully filled and price will work on it to accumulate some volumes, making a range in the imbalance. The exploitation of this one is done by the range pattern that I will explain later.
- C : Pullback on the fully filled imbalance OR Pullback on an imbalance got imbalanced again (Yes, if you do a breakout on it, you let the gap of volume which mean you always have the anomaly of market even if you passed on it. So when you come back it act like a first passage (A) but invert), like a pullback on a broken support, it became resistance, you can now use the bottom line as resistance line with signals.
Another pattern before to speak of today's session, the range pattern exploitation. I just want to remind that a range is horizontal, a channel is oblique. This is two things totally different, in structure, in exploitation, in market dynamic, in all way ! So your range (that you can find on left on chart) is an exchange between a level of supply (resistance area) and a level of demand (support area), so in is globality he is an area of volumes. These volumes to be exploited are read on the volume profile. Important level of your volume profile : the Point Of Control (POC) which is simply the price where the most volumes have been traded. Most of the time POC is in the middle of your range. There is other multiples interesting data to read with volumes profiles that I will not develop here but I invit you to read about it by your own on the platform or on google. I will only simply say that every step of price in your volume profile symbolize a state of your range. And as trading is mathematics you can easily find the correlation between your volume profile of your range and a normal law of distribution. In term of exploitation, when your price leave your range by a side or another you will see that a common pattern is to see it reach the expansion of 1:1 of the range, pullback the range on the POC (it can be simply on the resistance / support if pressure and supply / demand is too high) before to expand to the 2:1 / 3:1 expansion of your range (most relevant levels represented with dashed lime line here). And because Wyckoff is a psycological pattern of range, now you know why I target 1:1 expansion of range as first target out of the range.
"Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions"
Can we speak of today now ? Yes let's go !
So I was targeting a bounce on imbalance before to see a retest of the resistance. No signal, no volumes, no buyers, simply a little lateralization because of profit-taking caused by, no hazard, the 1:1 expansion of the range (where I took half of my gains yesterday). So next step is the full filling of the imbalance with volumes or a bounce on the bottom line. Neither one or the other, because we do a breakout, so we don't full filled it but leave again an imbalance, smaller this one (always purple rectangle). Next step ? We leave a range, so after 1:1 extension it's 2:1 extensions to target. And here we found a bounce, no signal, no volume always, which invite to see a consolidation. And what is really funny here, it's also the POC of the last range and like I said it's the most relevant level of pullback of a range (how market is well structured == market equilibrium). As every consolidation you find most of the time an end of it on the next resistance / support, and here it's our imbalance again. It did the job, there was a short daytrade here which give target on the big pin, complexe pattern that I never developped here but if you zoom on you can see the reaction on our imbalance and that show you what I explain in these pattern exploitation. I will be honest, what happen next was hard to anticipate, actually you see a consolidation movement (so expecting a lower low next) which reject back the resistance of the lower range and transform this consolidation bottom in a bull movement bottom. That another pattern that I never explain too, way more complexe than the initial too. In brief, you make a low with volumes (that why the initial pattern search for buying/selling volumes), when you don't you simply consolidate before to find volumes lower/upper (If you take the first LDTP idea that what making me say we didn't had the bottom of market for BTC, and I said true). Here you break your cycle and your market dynamics with an unfilled bottom, and this is an anomaly of market which annouce strong movement. And we got it, massive volumes, massive move, but irrelevant for the moment because it take place in an no interest area like show this image (the break of cycle on the bottom is more relevant than these volumes).
In term of expectation, it take a stop for the moment on the support of the lowest bottom of the top range like show the blue rectangle. But I will be honest we didn't retest the resistance for the moment, there isn't volume, so that only a consolidation before an higher movement (It confirmed during I was writting it).
Like yesterday we wait for the retest of the resistance, important levels are the grey areas (resistance/support area of the range), the yellow area (higher resistance) and the strongest the POC of the range. Here we will gauge the strenght of buyers AND the strenght of sellers. Because what is important to understand is that we are in a big confrontation here. Now buyers have the bullet we will see if sellers are stronger to hold them. I end shortly cause it's moving now ! Look your chart and enjoy cause in any way we go it's will be brutal. I think we are not far to see a + or - 10% on this market.
Like, follow or comment* if you like, I need it to continue !
*Speaking of comments, come ask questions, come share your point of view, come debate, I need to feel that my without counterpart work is usefull for some !
ความคิดเห็น:
NB : Sorry if there is mistakes, I didn't even reread to post it on time. I know it's indigestible but there is so many things to say, many things that I can't explain here, many thing to develop. Come in comment if you need more explaination, if you have questions.
ความคิดเห็น:
LOOK THIS MASTERPIECE !
If you take a look at what happened this night when I was writting this idea...
Wyckoff Distribution Pattern -> Spring -> Reaction on upper timeframe range POC -> Short signal -> Reject of the initial range POC.
Now you know.
If you take a look at what happened this night when I was writting this idea...
Wyckoff Distribution Pattern -> Spring -> Reaction on upper timeframe range POC -> Short signal -> Reject of the initial range POC.
Now you know.
ความคิดเห็น:
And if you go more far, you will see the WDP take place on the upper timeframe imbalance (B), exploitation of range.
ความคิดเห็น:
Wasn't convinced ?
