Fractal comparison for bitcoin, bear or bull? Bear!

Hey, guys

Just a few minutes ago, bitcoin surge about 1000 USD from ~ 9200 to ~ 10400. lots of pain for bears, especially whom holding high leverage short contract.

But when I check the fractal for bitcoin, there is a pattern very similar to current chart, which happen in 11.Mar. 2018. The similarities are:

• Double top in 4H time frame.
  
• Bitcoin price break down the neck line of double top.
  
• Bulls tried to break up the neck line, but failed, price drop again, but high low formed.
  
• Price surge more than 1000 USD in very short time, and break up the neck line.
  
• RSI indicator pattern, pls refer to the chart, it explained itself.
  

This activity (break up neck line suddenly) is try to liquid all of short contract or short holding. since large short holding are the resistance for drop(shorter will buy back in the lower price, buy activity is the resistance for shorter itself) . In traditional trading, most of shorter will open short contract after the price break down neck line, and set stop loss above the neck line. This is also the difference between traditional trading and crypto currency trading, how to beat the market always an art to learn in lifetime. Keep patience!

Pattern fail scenario: when price break up ~ 11300 with decent volume. if that happen, I will liquid the left of my short position which from ~ 12000.

Success pattern: price drop below neck line again ~ 9700, that means bleeding for longer incoming.

This thread just an interesting comparison base on my observation, not a trading suggestion. If you thought it's interesting, pls give me a like, many thanks!

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่:

Pattern repetition begin? :)

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่:

The power of history, will it retest ~ 10800 again as the path I drawed? haha

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่:

Next 4H is time to choose direction.

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่:

Let zoom in the 1H time frame, ~ 10600 is the most import support uptrend line to hold.

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่:

Back to the history repetition mode, as long as the price keep below ~ 10600, the possibility increase for more dump.

And ~10600/10650 is also the neck line for inverse H&S, if 1H/4H close below this neck line, which means inverse H&S may invalid.

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่:

finally, it comes.

ความคิดเห็น:

The only difference between the two fractal is this time time consumption to form the top, this time is more than last time, I thought one key reason for this is due to weekends holidays, whales need to have a rest :) do you agree, whale?

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่:

But still need to caution the next support ~ 11000 is very important to complete the H&S pattern, but I thought high possibility it will be break.

if it break, next support ~ 9700.

if all of above support break, which means history repetition completed.

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่:

Down trend move continue: second target ~ 9700. I thought there will have consolidations.

ปิดการเทรด: ถึงเป้าหมายการทำกำไร:

I will close this thread,target reached! 9700 support break