Bitcoin ABC Correction Within the ABC, Part 4
ที่อัปเดต:
Going to keep this one short, planning to write a normal analysis as well, just wanted to show this "fractal" again because even though its not identical, it does seem the the steps so far are the same. What i wrote in the previous analysis:
Think, at some point, we will make another retest of the lows, was thinking that past days as well and this chart shows as well that its not far fetched to think that. The massacre was quite big past week, not likely to think the market will recover in just a few days. normally it takes more time before confidence comes back in again. Also, the people i talked about in Part 1, who just didn't want to take profits at the highs, at least acting as if it was the biggest challenge ever in their lives, are also scared and some even are completely out of it. I am quite sure, the market will pull them back in again, but assuming we will see 50k+ prices again coming months (i hope).
Forgot to add, a month has passed and we had a few retests already of the lows. So could say that part might be done already, only thing lacking now is the confidence of the bulls, at least with the alt coin market
Last week i posted a potential 12345 wave for BTC, which was also the case in 2018 and has been playing out so far, which gives some hope for the bulls. However, this time, the third wave weaker than 3 years ago. I know that weakness was most likely caused by the FED meeting yesterday, causing some extreme moves within minutes, which probably was not planned by anyone. Anyway, this 5 wave count, means that BTC may not cross 38kish anymore, otherwise this theory fails. Doesn't mean it will crash, but it will take another form at least. Think anything above 36kish, would still give bulls at least a chance. So not good at all to see it drop below 38k, but it's not super bearish right away.
About the potential bullish move for coming weeks, as the fractal suggests, i will talk about that more in my next analysis. About what my thoughts are and the different scenario's i think are the most likely ones and what we want to see to determine which one of the scenario's will then be the more likely one.
One extra thing i want to mention, 2 months ago when i warned about the bearish wedge and the big ABC correction, i mention alts would probably bleed big time and the alt market cap will probably never break the ATH again. So of course some here and there could make new highs, but i dont think that all/most of them will do it again like earlier in 2021. But what has surprised me a lot past week, is the weakness of ETH. I honestly thought that ETH would at least move between weak alts and relatively stronger BTC, but past days ETH has been one of the weakest alts out there. I just honestly can't judge, if it's whales playing games and are accumulating ETH, or that they simply want to get rid of it.
This chart below shows the very clear difference, as if ETH got exchanged for BTC with some good volume. So maybe, this would be a key factor as well, that we can't really become bullish as long as we don't see ETH outperform BTC again, as we saw several times the first 4/5 months of this year.
That's it for now, not sure if I have to time to make the BTC analysis today, but i will try.
Previous analysis:
Think, at some point, we will make another retest of the lows, was thinking that past days as well and this chart shows as well that its not far fetched to think that. The massacre was quite big past week, not likely to think the market will recover in just a few days. normally it takes more time before confidence comes back in again. Also, the people i talked about in Part 1, who just didn't want to take profits at the highs, at least acting as if it was the biggest challenge ever in their lives, are also scared and some even are completely out of it. I am quite sure, the market will pull them back in again, but assuming we will see 50k+ prices again coming months (i hope).
Forgot to add, a month has passed and we had a few retests already of the lows. So could say that part might be done already, only thing lacking now is the confidence of the bulls, at least with the alt coin market
Last week i posted a potential 12345 wave for BTC, which was also the case in 2018 and has been playing out so far, which gives some hope for the bulls. However, this time, the third wave weaker than 3 years ago. I know that weakness was most likely caused by the FED meeting yesterday, causing some extreme moves within minutes, which probably was not planned by anyone. Anyway, this 5 wave count, means that BTC may not cross 38kish anymore, otherwise this theory fails. Doesn't mean it will crash, but it will take another form at least. Think anything above 36kish, would still give bulls at least a chance. So not good at all to see it drop below 38k, but it's not super bearish right away.
About the potential bullish move for coming weeks, as the fractal suggests, i will talk about that more in my next analysis. About what my thoughts are and the different scenario's i think are the most likely ones and what we want to see to determine which one of the scenario's will then be the more likely one.
One extra thing i want to mention, 2 months ago when i warned about the bearish wedge and the big ABC correction, i mention alts would probably bleed big time and the alt market cap will probably never break the ATH again. So of course some here and there could make new highs, but i dont think that all/most of them will do it again like earlier in 2021. But what has surprised me a lot past week, is the weakness of ETH. I honestly thought that ETH would at least move between weak alts and relatively stronger BTC, but past days ETH has been one of the weakest alts out there. I just honestly can't judge, if it's whales playing games and are accumulating ETH, or that they simply want to get rid of it.
This chart below shows the very clear difference, as if ETH got exchanged for BTC with some good volume. So maybe, this would be a key factor as well, that we can't really become bullish as long as we don't see ETH outperform BTC again, as we saw several times the first 4/5 months of this year.
That's it for now, not sure if I have to time to make the BTC analysis today, but i will try.
Previous analysis:
บันทึก
I am not a real fan of BTC pair charts, but they have been useful sometimes in the past as well. Here it does look as if it's forming a bullish wedge. As always, 3 options with a wedge:Simply pump, like 60%
Fake breakout down and pump: 25%
Completely fail and dump 15%
บันทึก
The EUR/USD pair continues to dump (means USD in gaining in value), down 200 pips already. It caused the crazy 1000/1500 up and down wicks yesterday as well. Today it continues to dump and that always puts pressure on the btcusd price. I have no other explanation than that. If you might remember a year ago i also talked about it, because the first months after the covid crash, it was extremely volitile, also causing very difficult fake signals. If EURUSD continues this way coming days and weeks, it could even get worse.
Anyway, below you can see the difference, where the green zone is that level that may NOT get crossed for the 12345 wave theory. Where BTCUSD is almost there while BTCEUR still has room.
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