BTC possible 30% decline from here?

BTC Upper wick formed on the daily. The past 2 months, once a long upper wick is presented, it showed us the top has been reached and a reversal is pending. I would expect a huge sell-off from there. Notice after both upper wicks, there was a 30% drop. It's very likely we may see the same results once again.

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We're not sitting at the 30% decline at $8.6k

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We're now* (typo)

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If BTC doesn't close above $8.3k by Tuesday, it's going to be downhill for BTC till around the $6k range